Managing risk cheaper and more efficient than reacting to disaster

A decisive solution to food security is within our reach. The promise of Africa has never been more compelling. Credible numbers showing robust, sustained economic growth and more confident voices speaking authoritatively of a brighter future are gaining prominence.

In an increasingly interconnected world, Africa’s ability to sustain this positive trajectory will rest on its capacity to tap into the benefits of globalisation whilst withstanding related shocks, notably the devastating impact of climate change on food security.

Perhaps nowhere in the world is the impact of climate on agriculture more direct and more dangerous than in Africa. Rising temperatures skew the timing and distribution of seasonal rains, causing fatal floods and drought and wreaking havoc on traditional farming systems dependent on reliable rainfall.

The impact is all the more devastating as to date, global thinking has focused reactively on managing disaster, rather than proactively managing risk. It is only when disaster strikes that we react.

After disaster strikes, funding is sought on a largely ad hoc basis and only then can relief be mobilised for the people who need it most. In the meantime, lives are lost and valuable assets depleted, undermining progress.

Such complex challenges call for wholistic solutions which take into account all the interdependencies of the different sub-issues. Only by defining truly integrated solutions will a decisive solution to food security become viable.

Innovation needs to be mainstreamed into every step of the process. This means re-thinking everything from the way we structure financial and technical support at a global level to how we deliver practical support to farmers. The signs are encouraging.

Firstly, Africa has in place the foundations of a green revolution. Through institutions such as the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, we are boosting agricultural productivity in the continent, creating the structural foundations necessary for sustainable food security.

Significant progress has already been made through research and development work focused on developing drought-resistant breeds, promoting agricultural technology and spreading agricultural education among farmers, using locally available technology.

Many other stakeholders – for example the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute and the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) – are active in this space and making similar progress. But what happens when productivity is impacted by climate?

The tools and data to predict food security risks with a relative measure of accuracy are now available. Research and experience in addressing food security challenges in the last 100 years now make it possible to generate accurate data estimating rainfall patterns across the world and to map the places most vulnerable to drought against the nutritional needs of affected populations.

The most encouraging recent development in this respect has been the development of the Africa RiskView by the World Food Programme.

Africa RiskView is a software platform that translates satellite-based rainfall data into near real-time needs and cost estimates for every first-level administrative district for every country in sub-Saharan Africa.

It combines four well-established disciplines: crop monitoring and early warning; vulnerability assessment and mapping; emergency response; and financial planning and risk management, providing the most sophisticated early warning system for food security risks yet.

African states themselves are now taking greater ownership of efforts aimed at resolving food security risks in the continent. In the July 2010 AU Summit in Uganda, African leaders re-affirmed their resolve to address food security.

Technical support is increasingly available to ensure that political will is translated into practical action, yet mobilising finance remains a challenge.

Averting disaster is the best way to support vulnerable populations, rather than helping them cope with the aftermath. From a financial perspective, managing disaster is also exponentially more expensive than managing risk.

If funds can be mobilised smartly through pooled weather insurance funds which offer farmers cover in the event of poor rains or the complete failure of rains, then African states can deploy their financial resources more cost-effectively and efficiently to support their populations before disaster strikes.

Dr Rodin is president of the Rockefeller Foundation which supports the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa and has provided a $3 million grant to enable the development of Africa RiskView.