For the opposition, Nasa is a journey of no return

What are the implications if the opposition fails to come together under Nasa?

The answer to this question requires a stepping back to consider what Jubilee has been able to do in preparation for the elections. Partly as a measure to give Deputy President William Ruto the confidence of central Kenya’s support in his bid for the presidency in 2022, but also in order to address the criticism that it was a coalition of only two ethnic communities, the Jubilee coalition engineered the dissolution of a number of small political parties, and also its two main constituent entities, The National Alliance and the United Republican Party, to form the new Jubilee party.

The merger led to a perception that Jubilee had strengthened significantly as would make it unbeatable in the 2017 elections.

SMALLER PARTIES

At the time, there were questions about the fate of a number of smaller parties which, though aligned to Jubilee, had refused to participate in the merger.

In particular Kanu, which had entered into a post-election merger with Jubilee, not only refused to join the merger, but was also involved in an open dalliance with the opposition.

Immediately after the merger, Jubilee remained hostile to allies that had resisted the merger, which were now regarded as competitors.

The possibility of an opposition alliance was initially met with scepticism, until the leading opposition figures signed an initial agreement that committed them to establish structured talks about a united opposition under Nasa.

As a collaborator of Jubilee, Kanu had been no more than an adornment in the coalition, with little political weight.

RIFT VALLEY VOTE

However, the competition for Rift Valley supremacy between Ruto and Kanu leader Gideon Moi came with the risk that if the former ruling party joined Nasa, this may result in a split of the Rift Valley vote between Jubilee and the opposition.

It is this threat, and the appearance that Ruto might not be able to deliver Rift valley on his own, that raised Kanu’s stock and also compelled what looked like a personal agreement between the younger Moi and Kenyatta.

Before Nasa, the main opposition coalition, Cord, had held together for four years and was projecting a united approach for the 2017 elections.

Although questions of a flagbearer had been raised, these were not discussed as strongly as has been the case under Nasa.

POSIBILITY OF MERGER

One of the effects of the possibility of a merger under Nasa is that it triggered intense internal competition among members of Cord, evidenced by poaching members from one another.

Also, the Wiper party has been active in establishing coalitions with regional Ukambani parties, the purpose of which seems to be to increase its leverage to negotiate within Nasa.
Talks about Nasa have had effects on both Jubilee and the opposition.

As regards the effect on Jubilee, the possibility of a united opposition under Nasa came with a threat that was serious enough to make Jubilee reconsider its own position.

As a result, Jubilee was forced out of the new comfort zone that it had established when it announced its merger last year, and has now gone into measures to further strengthen itself by entering into coalitions with others.

DISRUPT MERGER

Thus, the activities of the opposition have had a strengthening effect on Jubilee, and while the control that Kenyatta and Ruto had on the party will somewhat weaken, it is the price they have had to pay in meeting increased competition from the opposition.

Secondly, not satisfied with merely strengthening its house, there is evidence that Jubilee has also been attempting to disrupt the possibility of a Nasa merger, by enticing Nasa members out of the talks.

Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi issued a statement clarifying that he would rather serve under Nasa than under Jubilee, which was interpreted as a reaction to Jubilee’s reaching out to him.

It has also been claimed that the demonstrations in Kakamega last week were staged by Jubilee, and were a reaction to the report by the Nasa technical committee whose contents had been leaked to the media.

The activities by Nasa have also had an effect on its member parties. First, the internal competition within Nasa is as much about its presidential candidate as it is about the running mate.

NUMBER TWO POSITION

If the Nasa presidential candidate was to be determined on the basis of the current level of support that its constituent parties enjoy in the country, the Orange Democratic Party would probably get the nod.

Beyond this, although Wiper may claim an edge over ANC, the need to consolidate a claim for the number two position has been a trigger for the internal competition in Nasa as much as rivalry for the presidential candidate position.

Secondly, before Nasa, the Cord coalition, bonded by adversity over the last four years, looked like a coherent political outfit under which the opposition could present itself for the next elections.

The idea of Nasa has loosened the bonds created under Cord and, if for any reason Nasa fails, the fallback will no longer be Cord. Nasa has resulted in the death of Cord and its failure will be a major reversal of the gains made by individual members of the Cord coalition.

INTERNAL AFFAIRS

As indicated, Jubilee seems greatly interested in and capable of influencing the internal affairs of Nasa, an indication of the potency that a united opposition would bring to the elections. If Nasa fails, its internal problems will be one half of the explanation for the failure. The other half will be Jubilee’s meddling.

Further, by raising the political stakes, Nasa has triggered actions that have led to the strengthening of Jubilee, and at the same time, has raised the consequences of its own failure.

Whereas, in an honest election, Jubilee might still be vulnerable even if Nasa fails to materialise, the forthcoming election is not likely to be honest and the opposition cannot hope to be declared winner of a close election. If Nasa fails to unite, this will allow for a narrative that the opposition lost because it failed to unite.

For the opposition, Nasa is a journey of no return.

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