Why the Opposition keeps struggling even as Jubilee government blunders

The sugar “deal” made following President Uhuru Kenyatta’s much-publicised state visit to Uganda has caused a justifiable furore. Some questions need to be answered.

However, while the merits and demerits of importing sugar from Uganda can be argued out till Kingdom come, what is worryingly obvious is that as the government falters, the opposition itself has largely failed to capitalise on it and successfully mobilise public sentiment on several issues since the anti-climactic Saba Saba Day.

Indeed, while the opposition has always raised its voice with every misstep that the Jubilee government has made, such as in the area of constitutionalism, security, and the economy, none of these has excited public consciousness to its benefit. The jibe from President Barack Obama on his recent visit that the opposition is duplicitous did not help matters.

Some observers assume that the controversies surrounding the sugar affair with Uganda might translate into political gain for the opposition. However, the reason why the opposition has failed to make the most of the government’s inadequacies in the past has nothing to do with actual issues but largely with circumstances that the opposition can hardly manipulate.

POLITICAL MOBILITY

First, the opposition will struggle to swing public sentiment successfully if elite unity exists within the ranks of those in power. The successful Rainbow Coalition that swept President Mwai Kibaki to power was largely helped by disunity of the political elite in the nomination process of the then ruling party, Kanu.

The same applies to the birth of ODM which, although mobilised on the platform of a new Constitution, was largely helped by a similar fallout in the Kibaki-led Narc government. Without major cracks in the Jubilee political elite the opposition will not gain much.

What I am saying is that political consciousness in Kenya is not driven much by issues rather, by the strategic political mobility of its elite. Most Kenyans will only care to check the fine print of the sugar deal entered into by the government only if it results in a fallout at the elite level within the ruling coalition.

Second, the opposition has often failed to clearly clarify its immediate aims and possible alternatives with every blunder made by the government. The Saba Saba rally is a perfect example. The opposition clamoured for dialogue and almost got it, but dropped the chance and instead sought an amorphously articulated referendum.

GONE QUIET

After a long spell in which the opposition appeared to have taken a sabbatical, the clamour for more devolved funding to the counties was hurriedly picked up but later dropped after governors lost interest in locking horns with the National Government.

Shortly afterwards came the Okoa Kenya drive which, although launched in style, has gone eerily quiet. The litany of issues raised by Okoa Kenya appeared simply too broad to excite public consciousness from below. Scholars studying social and political movements argue that the lack of a singular purpose has shipwrecked many a movement.

Third is the issue of shared values. The tie that binds the jubilee political elite is not, as many think, the ICC but rather, a shared political value system drawing inspiration from Kanu’s idea of statecraft.
The President and his deputy can easily trace their political incubation to the prodding fimbo of retired President Moi. This shared heritage cannot be said of the opposition.

Indeed, the Cord principals represent a “mongrel” of divergent political ideologies, and it is difficult to imagine how they are still holding out together. Without a cogent, shared political value system, the opposition might still struggle in eliciting popular agitation.

A fourth point that inhibits the opposition in galvanising public support is the shifting perceptions of the President.

I do not think Mr Raila Odinga would have been an entirely different president from Uhuru Kenyatta. However, Kenyatta has not only managed to demystify power, but has constructed the image of an engaged yet approachable president.

Moreover, as was seen during President Obama’s visit and also in President Kenyatta’s address to Uganda’s Parliament, the jubilee elite have consistently and deliberately labelled the opposition as anti-development. I doubt if the ball is in the opposition’s court.

Dr Omanga is Head of Department, Publishing and Media Studies at Moi University, School of Information Sciences ([email protected])