Opposition has expanded its tent in quest for power

After laboured negotiations, the opposition National Super Alliance (NASA) presented its choice of a presidential candidate who will face off with President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto in the August elections.

NASA has selected the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement, Raila Odinga, as its presidential candidate, and the leader of the Wiper party as his running mate.

This will be a repeat of the pairing that came together in 2013 and, with the support of Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula, formed the Cord coalition which competed with Kenyatta and Ruto in the 2013 elections.

There are, however, unfamiliar elements about the opposition alliance this time round.

PRIME MINISTER

NASA now also includes the leader of the Amani National Congress, Musalia Mudavadi, who is designated to become the Prime Minister if the opposition wins the elections.

An additional two positions of Deputy Prime Minister constitute part of the line-up.

One will go to Wetang’ula and the other to the Chama Cha Mashinani leader, Isaac Ruto, who has since joined NASA.

It has been a long four years for the opposition. In particular, the Cord coalition, which assumed the role of the official opposition, has led the line in maintain a check on the Jubilee administration during this period.

While there was always a perception that Cord would break up, bringing an end to the possibility of a viable opposition in the 2017 elections, the opposition has not only held together but has also expanded its tent in readiness for the elections.

Whatever happens in this election, the basis for a competitive opposition after the election has also been created.

HOLDING OPPOSITION TOGETHER

If there is to be credit for holding the opposition together, a large amount of this will go to Odinga who had to make the difficult transformation from the image of a statesman that he had assumed as the Prime Minister and co-principal in the grand coalition government that ended in 2013, to the less dignified role of leading an opposition.

As the target of animosity from the Jubilee side in a polarised political context, Odinga has endured a stream of indignities to maintain his role as the opposition leader.

For the NASA coalition to come together, two opposition leaders had to make sacrifices.

The first is Musyoka who had his own presidential ambitions in this election.

SUPPORT ODINGA

Apparently, part of the understanding in forming Cord was that Odinga would support Musyoka’s presidential bid in this election.

Musyoka has had to forego his own bid in order to support Odinga once again.

The second is Mudavadi, who abandoned the opposition ODM to launch his own presidential bid in 2013.

As a senior politician who has also held the position of Vice- President before, Mudavadi’s support for Odinga’s presidential bid, especially when he is not going to be part of the ticket, constitutes some sacrifice.

During the launch, Mudavadi adverted to the sacrifice, explaining that it was his idea to form NASA and that, in doing so, he wanted to put the interests of Kenya ahead of his own political ambitions.

CREDIBLE CHALLENGE

Although maintaining a united approach to the elections is already a considerable feat for the opposition, the hard work must now begin if they are to present a credible challenge to Jubilee’s hold on power.

To begin with, whomever they settled on as the opposition candidate, there was bound to be some disquiet about the choice from within the opposition support base.

It is therefore not surprising that the decision to present an Odinga/Musyoka ticket has received some criticism from within the opposition, even as it has also been praised from within the same ranks.

The first task will therefore be to explain matters to their support base and to get them to support the selection that has been made.

NASA has revealed that it will be a transitional government, and that unlike past political deals that have been shrouded in mystery, the coalition agreement was a public document that had been deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties.

BECOME PRESIDENT

The idea of a transitional government has been interpreted to mean that Odinga will serve only one term.

Inherent in this understanding is an expectation that the cooperating principals will expect his support for their own presidential bids, starting with the 2022 elections.

If this understanding is correct, it must also mean that the expectation within the opposition is that whoever is to succeed Odinga in 2022 will also serve only one term, since it would not be reasonable to expect that any of the principals would accept to wait until 2032 for his turn to become president.

If this analysis is correct, what NASA has done can transform the way the presidency is viewed in Kenyan politics.

If, in effect, they have agreed to come together based on an expectation that each one of them will have a chance to serve as a one-term president, they can sell NASA as a mechanism that promotes political inclusion by ensuring a quick rotation of the presidency among the country’s ethnicities.

SERVE FOR TEN YEARS

Since, in this rotation, nobody should serve for 10 years, they can present the position that Kenyatta will be the first in a series of one-term presidents, and that his supporters do not have to view his exit during this election as a failure, but rather as his share of the accommodation that everyone must make to promote a rotation of the presidency.

If NASA establishes and markets a commitment to a one-term presidency which they are also imposing on Kenyatta, it will be easier for NASA to build a broad base of support across the country, for Odinga’s bid as a compromise candidate to receive wide acceptance and for Kenyatta, as the incumbent, to accept that it does not have to amount to indignity if he loses the forthcoming election.

At the launch, NASA said it will run on a “Kenya first” platform. Given the monumental challenges that face the country, this can be a compelling platform, and NASA, as a transitional government, can consolidate the idea that everyone has to give something for Kenya to survive.

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