Political class testing Kenyans’ patience

I have been in a funk for several weeks. But my depression is political, not clinical. Last August, I mistakenly thought the new Constitution would change minds and the language of political discourse. But I was in lala land. Nothing has changed. Zilch – nada.

Which invites the question – do the mandarins in ODM and PNU know that they are sitting on a deadly volcano? Can “a Tunisia” happen in Kenya? It’s possible, even probable. Here are five reasons why.

Kenya is ripe for a velvet revolution and the political class will be the last to find out. I am not Syokimau, the Kamba prophetess who foretold the coming of whites, but I can see a political tsunami.

Revolutions – velvet or bloody – are never advertised. They just happen. One day, the hoi polloi decide enough is enough. If you doubt me, look at Tunisia. Who would have thought? That’s why the leaders in ODM and PNU won’t know what hit them.

The people are “pregnant” with anger and frustration. The voodoo of tribalism is a witch’s brew that can no longer sedate them. This opium of the Kenyan masses is no longer potent.

Why? Because tribal warlords show utter contempt and disdain even for “their own”. We have reached a point of no return, the inflection point. No one will be able to put the genie back into the bottle.

A velvet revolution occurs when there is a perfect storm and stars are in celestial alignment. We may be there. The first reason was the attack on the International Criminal Court by the political class.

MPs are totally oblivious to the public anger caused by their motion to pull Kenya out of the ICC. They completely underestimate the popularity of the ICC among the masses. Nor do they comprehend the depth of despair and public empathy with IDPs.

President Mwai Kibaki’s silence on the motion deepens public cynicism and erodes the legitimacy of the state.

PM Raila Odinga’s rejection of the motion is viewed as half-hearted because it’s not the official ODM position.

The second reason is VP Kalonzo Musyoka’s Africa tour to secure the support of the African Union to scuttle the trials of the Ocampo Six at The Hague.

Mr Musyoka claims, and there is no reason to doubt him, that these visits were sanctioned by President Kibaki.

Let’s get this straight – President Kibaki and VP Musyoka are using the prestige and power of the Kenyan state to sabotage the quest for justice for the victims of post-election violence. They would rather shield the Ocampo Six from accountability than take care of IDPs.

Own cross

ODM says that it is not a party to this nefarious plot. But it won’t let Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, the ODM chair, carry his own cross.

The third reason is the government’s determination to fund the legal defence of the Ocampo suspects, most notably Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura and former Police Commissioner Hussein Ali. Their logic is tortured.

VP Musyoka claims that the two are charged at the ICC for carrying out “official duties”. This is as bizarre as it is untenable. Since when did alleged crimes against humanity include the official brief of a Kenyan official?

It is a well established principle of international law that public officials who commit genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity bear “individual responsibility”. They cannot invoke as defence their official duties or superior orders. Suspects for these heinous crimes cannot take cover under the state.

To his credit, Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo has denounced this callous and dastardly plan to use taxpayer money to defend the suspected masterminds. ODM claims not to be a part of this plot although it was late to voice dissent.

The fourth reason why Kenya is ripe for a velvet revolution is corruption and impunity. Although Kacc director PLO Lumumba appears to have awakened it from slumber, nothing concrete has been accomplished.

No successful prosecutions have been secured. What’s more, larger scandals are still unattended – Anglo Leasing, Goldenberg, Triton, Grand Regency, and Maize, among others.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. The hoi polloi want to see titans behind bars, not empty talk.

The fifth and last reason a political upheaval is likely is the delay and shenanigans on the implementation of the new Constitution. Kenyans want change – now. But what do they get? Questionable appointments to key implementation committees and foot dragging in writing the necessary laws.

It’s no accident the government invited President Omar al-Bashir, a man indicted by the ICC for genocide, to the promulgation of the Constitution. This is sabotage by another name.

The famine that is killing people, the execution of suspects by the police, and the disaster that is the truth commission have created a political powder keg. Our political class has nothing but contempt for the people. Are the leaders aware they have created a revolutionary situation?

I don’t want to be an alarmist, but matters have come to a head. Our leaders only care about which one of them will ascend to power in 2012.

That’s why they are busy cobbling tribal alliances.

Our airwaves and print media are inundated with the same twenty dubious characters, week in and week out. They scheme and plot by creating a siege mentality among “their tribesmen”.

But I think these “tribesmen” are fed up. The youth is organising. Our people rose up against British colonial rule. Then they rose up against 40 years of Kanu rule. It’s high noon again.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.