Political turmoil might bring down Kenya’s fragile economy

Jubilee supporters protest outside the Supreme Court, Nairobi, on September 19, 2017 over the ruling that annulled Uhuru Kenyatta's election victory. Simultaneous demonstrations had been organised in Nyeri, Nakuru, Kiambu and Eldoret. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Whichever way you look at it, the events were a blatant attack on the independence of the Judiciary.
  • We take predictable positions depending on what we perceive to be the hegemonic interests of the elite of our tribe.

As a society, we are surely at the nadir of our moral values.

Consider the events of yesterday at the premises of the Supreme Court of Kenya in Nairobi.

On the eve of an eagerly awaited judgment by the highest court in the land on the recently nullified presidential election, hordes of hired goons wearing branded shirts — and having been incited by lying demagogues and fake propaganda — raid the premises of the Supreme Court to demonstrate against two of its judges.

PROPAGANDA

And that at a time when the Supreme Court was deep in the middle of making final touches to its historic ruling.

It all happens in the context of an unscrupulous propaganda campaign on the two Supreme Court judges based on unsubstantiated allegations and fake news.

Later, in the afternoon, it turns out that simultaneous demonstrations had been organised in Nyeri, Nakuru, Kiambu and Eldoret.

OUTRAGE

Whichever way you look at it, the events were a blatant attack on the independence of the Judiciary perpetrated and funded by self-absorbed elites in the hope that the two judges would capitulate to their whims.

Had the vile attempt at arm-twisting the Judiciary and intimidating Supreme Court judges happened in any other civilised society, it would have provoked national outrage.

But then, we live in a society that is gradually losing its sense of national outrage.

In an ethnically polarised Kenya, you look at everything that happens from the prism of your tribal interests.

TRIBALISM

We take predictable positions depending on what we perceive to be the hegemonic interests of the elite of our tribe.

If you perceive the court’s actions to be not in line with the hegemonic interests of your tribe, you will not feel outraged even by such orchestrated attacks on the independence of the Judiciary.

When will Kenyans wake up to the reality that tribal loyalty is slowing gnawing at the vitals of the unity and integrity of the nation?

ECONOMY
Why aren’t we outraged enough that some citizens of this country are in the High Court demanding secession of the ancient Kingdom of Nabongo Mumia?

Where are our respected men and women of calibre and vision, who command respect from both sides of the political divide, with capacity to mediate an agreement over the stalemate surrounding the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission and the impending repeat presidential elections?

We must hold the election because the alternative will be hard economic times.

We have a fragile economy that can neither withstand nor survive prolonged protest rallies, mass action and boycotts.

UNEMPLOYMENT
The police or the military may stop demonstrations, rallies or boycotts temporarily.

But what is coming out loud and clear is that there are just too many young and unemployed youth with nihilist tendencies ready to be hired by the elites even when the task at hand involves crime.

Today, it is politically expedient for the elites to organise youth to attack the Judiciary or storm the IEBC.

What we often forget is that we could be unwittingly radicalising these youth.

Frequent demonstrations, boycotts or strikes are not good for stable capitalism.

INVESTMENT
Without a quick resolution to the presidential election issue, our economy will remain badly exposed.

The painful truth is that our economy is close to exhausting its main sources of resilience — namely; investment by the private sector, very few profitable companies and a dearth of opportunities for profitable investments.

When you look at the statistics of the performance of the banking sector, you will see that too many of our small banks are facing a dangerous cocktail of reducing margins, declining liquidity and deteriorating asset quality.

BANK LOANS
You will also notice that non-performing loans have surged upwards.

Indeed, the excess levels of non-performing loans that we see in the balance sheet of banks have come about because they have lent money to companies that are not able to pay back.

It is a reflection of the declining profitability trend in the corporate sector.

And, is it not a sign of the times we live in that a company such as Nakumatt, the largest retailer and bellwether for the economy with linkages across the economic span, is seeking financial support from its competitor, Tuskys?

If the political stalemate over the IEBC is not resolved quickly and election held as ordered by the Supreme Court several weeks ago, we must brace for hard economic times.