Polls can prevent collapse of South Sudan

What you need to know:

  • The most obvious way out of these self-inflicted wounds is for the 2015 peace agreement to be sincerely and urgently implemented.
  • The transitional government lacks the resolve to tackle the endemic corruption that has diminished the trust of South Sudanese in their government since 2005.
  • Expecting the current political elite to implement the necessary reforms would be profoundly naïve as the prevailing situation is essential to its grip on power.

On July 9, 2011, more than 100,000 South Sudanese gathered at Dr John Garang’s mausoleum in Juba, the nation’s capital, to celebrate the independence of their country from Sudan

It was a dream come true for South Sudanese who had long suffered at the hands of successive northern regimes.

In December 2013, however, the joy of newfound freedom quickly turned into a horrible nightmare.

The fledgling republic descended into violence that quickly turned into civil war.

As Hilde Johnson, former special representative on South Sudan to the UN secretary-general, narrated in her recent book, South Sudan: The Untold Story, the civil war was avoidable but was inflicted upon the people by the irresponsible leadership and blind ambition of the chief protagonists — President Salva Kiir and his deputy, Dr Riek Machar.

A power-sharing peace agreement was signed in August 2015.

This led to a partial establishment of the Transitional Government of National Unity.

The implementation of the agreement has been slow and recently stagnated due to lack of political will.

The legislature and the judiciary are yet to be reconstituted. Encampment sites for Dr Machar’s forces in Greater Equatoria and Greater Bahr El Ghazal are still to be identified.

And the issue of Mr Kiir’s unilateral decree to divide the country into 28 states, in place of the 10 recognised in the peace agreement, remains outstanding.

In the meantime, the economy continues to deteriorate, with inflation soaring to over 300 per cent. New militia groups have cropped up.

The tensions that led to the conflict in 2013 are building up again as the regional and international pressure that led to the signing of the peace agreement wane.

WAY OUT

The most obvious way out of these self-inflicted wounds is for the 2015 peace agreement to be sincerely and urgently implemented.

The transitional government lacks the resolve to tackle the endemic corruption that has diminished the trust of South Sudanese in their government since 2005.

The security and justice reforms outlined in the agreement are unlikely to be commenced. And there is a limited chance that the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration agenda will be moved forward.

Much of this impasse relates to the chicken-and-egg problem in South Sudan.

That is to say, key reforms are essential to allow the country to recover from the poor governance it has endured for more than a decade, yet such reforms cannot be implemented without an effective and committed leadership.

And expecting the current political elite to implement the necessary reforms would be profoundly naïve as the prevailing situation is essential to its grip on power.

Continuing to impose the current coalition leadership on the country at this crisis moment may inadvertently trigger the disintegration of South Sudan.

Therefore, it is crucial to initiate discussions on other options for preventing total state failure.

This approach would require abandoning the ambitious reforms envisioned in the peace agreement and instead initiated action aimed, first and foremost, at restoring legitimacy to the country by holding elections within one year.

Fundamental elements of the agreement could include constitutional amendments to trim the executive authority and guarantee essential freedoms.

It could also include placing the electoral body under the supervision of the international community for it to be fair and credible.

And it could further involve a role for the international community in providing basic funding to prevent the economy from collapsing.

Because of pervasive government corruption, provisions could be made to have the bulk of this money flow through international and national NGOs and communities with the aim of minimising hunger and encouraging a people-led reconciliation process at the grassroots.

The international pressure that brought the agreement to birth could be redirected to moving its implementation forward.

However, if the leaders have no interest in the agreement, it is hard to imagine how it can be properly and genuinely implemented.

And given this, it would be better if urgent alternative arrangements be made so that the country can hold elections within a year to regain a degree of legitimacy and new leadership.

This may be the only way forward. As the recent fighting in Juba underlined, any further inaction risks the disintegration of South Sudan.

The writer teaches international relations at the United States International University – Africa. [email protected].