Promoting and marketing tourism are no solution to the industry’s waning fortunes

Some of the pillars of the Kenyan economy are undergoing strong headwinds: Tea prices have been depressed or dropping for almost a year; coffee prices have fallen; a lot of agriculture is set to suffer from inadequate rainfall; tourism is suffering badly due largely, but not wholly, to security and terrorism related incidents and threats.

Kenya’s attraction as a tourism destination has long been regarded as one of the country’s natural and precious assets. Visitor numbers and revenue have grown at a respectable, although often erratic, rate over the years.

There has been an ongoing debate as to how we develop and promote this resource. When one looks at the overall world tourism cake and the tiny morsel we have of it the potential looks positively appetising.

READ: Uhuru tells off West over travel advisories

READ: British tourists evacuated from Kenya after terror threat

A most compelling argument that comes up again and again has been that one of the keys to success is to market, market and market.

Not only does one promote the destination and the product, but this strategy helps to deflect or reduce any negatives and misconceptions regardless of whether they are real or perceived.

Another one is the need to nurture, take care of, and indeed, conserve the product. The surge in poaching is a sober reminder of the enormity of this task ahead.

But of late, tourism growth has been stopped in its tracks and we have witnessed a contraction in numbers and revenue. Tourism numbers fell by 15 per cent last year and revenue by 2.13 per cent.

Taking into account such factors as inflation, the real decline in revenue is much more. So far this year, the picture is not very encouraging.

If one breaks these figures down, one will see that some areas like coast tourism have suffered even more, general morale is low and the projections not good.

Last week, the Kenya Tourism Board outlined a plan to put tourism on a recovery path. Its main plank is to allocate and spend more on promotion and marketing.

MORE SENSITIVE AND FICKLE

Laudable though that may appear, it is necessary to ask some hard questions as to whether it is realistic to be trying to put tourism back onto a growth route.

Tourism is exceedingly sensitive, indeed vulnerable, to issues to do with insecurity, terrorism, political fluidity and so on. It is much more sensitive and fickle than most other areas of our economy. Prospective or potential tourists shy away at their very sign.

We saw this in the months after the 2007/2008 post-election trauma. But that was arguably something we were able to assuage given time and hard work.

But terrorism and security related issues is a different and much more complex animal. In reality it is clear we have some way to go in this daunting and complex multi-pronged challenge.

When we see official acknowledgement that we are struggling to cope, then that is quite an indictment.

We, therefore, need to accept the reality that tourism faces a tough environment for the foreseeable future and that more money spent on marketing is tantamount to introducing the law of diminishing returns. In short, it is not necessarily money wisely spent.

So what now for tourism?

At a macro level, Kenya must seriously upgrade and make more professional and effective its whole security system from intelligence gathering to its defence and police forces.

At the moment, it is an embarrassing shadow of what it should be and some public pronouncements maintaining otherwise are hollow and are not seriously believed.

EVALUATE PERFORMANCE

Kenya is not alone in having serious security threats and it should eagerly glean as much as possible from countries such as Israel on what to do. This will take time, money and considerable zeal, but is the only realistic way forward.

At the tourism level, the country, government and players must take a dispassionate look at its prospects for the foreseeable future and accept that there will be significant consolidation and even contraction.

After all, we are talking about a proactive surgical strategy as opposed to a knee-jerk reactive lurch from one crisis to another.

Pleas from the tourism industry for more money on promotion and other financial support are not the answer.

Any strategy must assess strengths and weaknesses of the industry at both a macro and micro level.

As regards the former, we may identify conference and domestic tourism as areas we should focus on more. Coast hotels may need to consider working harder and be more innovative on these two options.

The tourism industry is no different from most other sectors when it comes to evaluating its performance and undergoing change in order to recover and become vibrant once again.

Mr Shaw is a Nairobi-based businessman.