Raila needs to pass this test to tame the rebellion in ODM as Western tour starts

The question is whether or not the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is imploding. That is an important matter because one, ODM is by parliamentary representation Kenya’s largest political organisation. Two, ODM anchors the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) in particular and Kenya’s progressive left in general.

Three, ODM, therefore, embodies the hopes and prayers of Kenyans for an alternative government and the onus of marshalling democratic forces to keep the government in check. Four, the question that arises, then, is whether ODM can overcome the rebellion in the party and concentrate on the business of preparing for next year’s General Election with a view to leading Cord into taking power from the governing Jubilee Alliance.

The vocal voices of dissent and threats to decamp by faithful among Luhya, Kisii, Kuria and some coastal communities should be a wake-up call to the ODM high command to turn inwards with a new broom of cleaning up and putting everything in order before it can look to doing electoral battle with Jubilee.

ODM’s enemy is not, and must not be, itself; ODM’s enemy is Jubilee. Jubilee is jubilant about the troubles in ODM because when your enemy fights himself, you help hasten his downfall. It is why, for example, Jubilee always reminds Cord that while it has yet to decide who its torchbearer will be, the governing coalition has President Kenyatta.

ODM has four weapons to use against Jubilee. The first is its internal unity of purpose, democracy and organisation. The second is its unity and cohesion with its Cord affiliates, the Wiper Democratic Movement and Ford Kenya.

The third is the unrelenting expansion of Cord’s support base, intensive and pervasive registration of voters and imbuing the base with a get-out-and-vote spirit for the General Election.

The fourth is a Cord rallying cry that also serves as a call to battle. It must find a popular grouse or set of grouses against Jubilee; it must identify Kenyans as the victims and establish Cord as the saviour of the country. Remember Team Digital versus Analogue? Yote Yawezekana Bila Moi? Cord needs a new message to rattle Jubilee and rally the base.

LEADERSHURLING ABUSE

Indeed, ODM has a lot of work to do and it does not consist in Luo lawmakers hurling abuse at decamping Secretary-General Ababu Namwamba or ODM’s cyberspace warriors insulting Abaluhya.

This will not grow ODM’s base; it will not organise the party or prepare it to fight a General Election; it will not endear disgruntled Abaluhya, Abagusii, Abakuria or coastal communities, and politicos, to the party.

By the same token, ODM’s base will not be expanded or voters registered in large numbers by the whining and whingeing at Orange House and its cyberspace warriors that Jubilee is bribing its members to defect. It is in the best interests of Jubilee to destabilise the opposition. It is in the best interests of ODM to thwart attempts to destabilise it and Cord. It is not Jubilee’s headache that ODM does not have funds to lure defectors.

But it is ODM’s business to prove to the electorate that Jubilee has diverted taxpayer money to political use and turn that into propaganda on the stump votes at the ballot.

So, as Party Leader Raila Odinga embarks on his four-day tour of restive Luhyaland, he must not spend his time and energies lambasting Namwamba & Co for calling him a dictator even if he is. Instead he should tell Abaluhya, and by extension Kenyans, why they are better off in ODM and not any other outfit.

He should tell Kenyans the reasons why, while Namwamba & Co are free to join new parties, they should be confident that Cord will win the next General Election and he the presidential poll. Most importantly, he should address the issues raised recently by Luhya leaders regarding their mistreatment by Orange House and why they should not be reason enough for Abaluhya to quit the party.

Back to the beginning. Is ODM imploding? Yes, it is and, unfortunately, when the other side appears to be transitioning from coalition to one party. Can the implosion be stopped? This is the test Mr Odinga must pass for failure has grave implications for Kenya’s democratic project. His visit to Luhyaland must headline his fight back.

But this fight back must go beyond steadying the ODM ship to overcome the current internal turmoil, to transforming Cord into not only a government in waiting but also a winning outfit which it currently is not.

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