Raila scores an own goal every time ICC emerges on the scene

Raila Odinga has taken a noble stand on the question of the collapse of the Kenyan cases at the International Criminal Court.

The problem is that the position he has adopted is disastrous for his presidential ambitions.

The unfortunate reality is that elections are not won by idealists. They are won by those who are crafty enough to assess the easiest way to amass enough numbers to get them over the line.

In the words of the popular Makossa hit classic: You must calculate, calculate, calculate.

If I were Mr Odinga’s adviser, I would tell him to steer well clear of the ICC issue because no other factor blocked his path to the presidency last time than the question of the expected trials in The Hague.

Look at the numbers. In March 2010, enjoying higher visibility than any other national politician and as the Prime Minister with command of half the government, Raila was head and shoulders above all his opponents.

A Synovate poll found that if elections were held at that time, Raila would command the support of 36 per cent of voters while Kalonzo Musyoka could expect the backing of 12 per cent of eligible voters.

Uhuru Kenyatta lagged far behind at 8 per cent, with William Ruto standing at 7 per cent.

Things looked even better for the Prime Minister in October 2010. He and President Kibaki had put aside their differences and campaigned hard for the endorsement of the new Constitution.

There was a warm glow sweeping over the country. A progressive Constitution had been adopted, ending decades of agitation.

And the two rivals who had fought such a bitter campaign in 2007 seemed to be working in harmony together again.
A Synovate poll found that Raila was enjoying near-record support levels. He was a touching distance from attaining the 50+1 per cent target set by the new Constitution.

Fully, 48 per cent of respondents said they would vote for him at the next election. This was a 34-point advantage over the PM’s nearest rival, Uhuru, whose popularity stood at 14 per cent. It seemed little could stop the march to State House by the man who had been so controversially thwarted a few years earlier.

SUPPORT DEVOLVED SYSTEM

Then December 15, 2010 happened. Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo released his list of six suspects.

In one instant, the contours of the next election were reshaped. Instead of being fought on the question of who would be best placed to implement the new Constitution and support the devolved system of government — all issues on which no candidate could beat Raila — the election instead turned into a one-issue referendum.

The poll numbers over the next two years illustrate how disastrous this was for the PM and how the eventual Jubilee ticket milked it to maximum effect.

A clever adviser to Raila would have told him to take a long Christmas break and say little after the names were released in 2010.

When he vocally backed the ICC process, his opponents found a subject they could exploit to paint themselves as victims of an international plot designed to influence the presidential contest.

In the October 2010 Synovate poll, 68 per cent of respondents had expressed support for the ICC process. By mid 2013, that figure was down to just 39 per cent.

Raila’s numbers also went into a gradual decline, to 31 per cent by July 2012, while Uhuru’s figures at that stage had gone up by 10 points to 24 per cent, shrinking the gap from 34 points to seven.

Maybe Raila is surrounded by too many idealists and dreamers and not enough cold-blooded realists.
Otherwise, knowing that history, his people would not have allowed him to take the strong position he has in the wake of the collapse of the ICC cases.

This is, of course, not a comment from a moral standpoint but one of pure pragmatism.

(The type of hard-nosed pragmatism employed by the number crunchers who made Barack Obama twice in two brilliantly orchestrated campaigns.)

Raila’s supporters already share his position on the ICC and it’s far more advantageous for him to look for support outside his strongholds.
The ICC issue only inflames the bases of his opponents and rallies them to the side of the incumbents.

There is little doubt that it is wise and noble to agitate against impunity just as Raila deserves great credit for his position on the conservation of the Mau forest.
Sadly, such idealism is rarely rewarded at the ballot box and the Cord leader seems to have learnt little from the effect the ICC issue had on his last campaign.

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