Respect for peaceful transfer of power key to Africa’s stability

Failure to respect the crucial doctrine of peaceful transfer of power after elections is now the greatest source of instability in Africa.

This is manifest from The Gambia’s December 1, 2016 presidential election, which has degenerated into a frightful circus. 

It all started blissfully with the riverine country’s strongman, Yahya Jammeh, publicly conceding that he had lost the election to opposition leader Adama Barrow. 

For a week, Gambia was hoisted as the poster child of a new commitment by Africa’s power elite to democracy and the doctrine of peaceful transfer of power. 

Then came the bombshell on Friday.

Jammeh, who has ruled his country for 22 years, took to the airwaves rejecting the results of last week’s vote and calling for “fresh and transparent elections, which will be officiated by a God-fearing and independent electoral commission”.

This has thrown Gambia into a profound electoral crisis with far-reaching implications for its stability.

Ghana offers a more inspiring scenario.

Here, President John Mahama, who vowed to respect the outcome of the December 7, 2016 elections, has conceded defeat and congratulated opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo who has reportedly won 53.27 per cent of the presidential vote. 

Events in Gambia and Ghana stress the need for a new deal for peaceful transfer of power as a precondition for the stability of new democracies in Africa. 

While it is widely held that “democracies seldom go to war against each other”, failure to respect this principle has always resulted in instability.

In America, it was only after the election of 1800 that the country witnessed its first peaceful transfer of political power.   

FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION
Despite the rancor created by the election of Donald Trump, the transfer of power in Washington is moving smoothly ahead of the swearing-in of the President-elect on January 20, next year.

Elite consensus on the principle of peaceful transfer of power has become the guarantor of stability at an hour when America is badly divided. 

It is against this backdrop that the United Nations Development Programme, in partnership with the Africa Policy Institute, are convening a high-level forum in Nairobi on Wednesday to explore thoughts, good practices and lessons of deepening democracy on the continent.

As the sixth of the popularly known as “Maendeleo Forum”, the Nairobi meeting seeks to examine the link between election management and stability within the wider context of Africa’s divided societies.

Democratisation in Africa is an intriguing paradox.

At the one level, the “Third wave of democratisation” that washed over Africa from the late 1980s gave rise to the idea of a “second liberation” with elections transformed into the regular and widely accepted mechanism of popular expression, change of government office holders and policies, and of political accountability. 

In this regard, the African Union’s new legal and normative framework that underpins what is popularly known as “Africa’s peace and security architecture” outlaws unconstitutional take-over of governments through military coups or civilian-led seizure of power, stressing the primacy of democratic elections. 

In the last two decades, the number of countries holding elections in Africa has grown exponentially.

In the 2011-2012 hiatus, Africa held 25 presidential elections and 33 parliamentary polls.

The African Union indicates that the continent will have held 31 elections by the end of December 2016, including 13 presidential contests.

Some 14 countries are scheduled to hold presidential and general elections in 2017, including Kenya, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Somaliland. 

Africa is reaping the dividends of democratic peace after guns fell silent in many theatres of war.

More Africans are likely to die from road accidents or malaria than from violent conflict.  

NEW LEASE
The 2016 elections in Gambia, Ghana and Benin have showed that the principle of peaceful transfer of power is beginning to take root in Africa. 

In the wake of the March 20 presidential run-off in Benin was a peaceful transfer of power from President Thomas Boni Yayi to the winner, Patrice Talon.  

But there is a caveat. Large victory margins in electoral contests have contributed to post-election stability in Africa’s divided societies. 

In Benin, Talon won with a huge margin of 65.37 per cent.

In Cape Verde, peace prevailed after the incumbent, President Jorge Carlos Fonseca, won an emphatic 74pc of the vote.  

Beyond the euphoria of Africa rising, Africa’s democratic experiments are trapped in what political scientist Terry Karl describes as “electoralism” or a “half-way” transition from authoritarian rule toward democratic governance. 

Setting the benchmarks for the debate on “electoralism” is the vexing issue of presidential term limits.

Opinion in Africa is also sharply divided on the debate on curbs on presidential term limits as a tool of entrenching democracy. 

One view, largely inspired by the case of Rwanda, previously plagued by civil wars and genocides, stresses the need to balance the imperatives of democracy and those of Africa’s quest for stability and development.

Here, the referendum of the third term for the sitting president was defended as a way of enabling the country to heal from centuries of ethnic animosity and consolidate development. 

The contrary view is that routine elections have not necessarily enhanced the value or quality of democracy. 

Rather, they have given a new lease of life to authoritarian regimes.  

PREVENTING VIOLENCE
In Chad, President Idriss Deby was re-elected for the fifth term on April 10; in Djibouti, President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh was re-elected for a fourth term with a whooping 87 pc of the vote in the April 8 election.

In Equatorial Guinea, President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo retained his position after winning 93.7 pc of the vote in the April 24 elections.

And in the Republic of the Congo, President Denis Sassou Nguesso garnered 60 pc to clinch victory on March 20. 

Despite this glimmer of hope, which has given rise to the optimistic mantra of Africa rising, elections in Africa remain the main cause of violent conflict.

In February, post-election violence occurred in Uganda after the elections, in Zambia after the August 11 polls and in Gabon after the August 27 contest.

Narrowly won elections have fuelled post-election instability.

Ultimately, careful management of diversity through efficient and credible institutions is the key to stability in African democracies. 

Prof Kagwanja is the CEO of Africa Policy Institute