Romney on course to be Republicans’ man

One week from Saturday, South Carolina will determine whether Mitt Romney will win the state’s Republican primary. It is an important election in America because it will determine the toughness of the opponent who will face President Barack Obama.

Romney has won two states, Iowa and New Hampshire. He has withstood a withering tsunami of attacks from his opponents, the most recent being whether his private investment company laid off employees to make profits.

As Republican contender Newt Gingrich has said, Romney has been running for political office on one level or another since the 1990s.

Except for his one term as Massachusetts governor, he is a perennial second place finisher.

South Carolina has all of the critical components.

The state is socially conservative. It is a poor state and has struggled more than others with the economic downturn. It is packed with military bases, which are vulnerable to Obama’s recently announced drawdown. And it is jam-packed with evangelical Christians, who have questions about Romney’s faith.

The social conservatives have concerns with Romney. He is viewed, at least in many Republican circles, as the inspiration for the Obama healthcare plan. He gave birth to a similar plan when he was governor.

Romney has expressed opposition to gay marriage but is OK with domestic partnerships. He has been in favour of abortion, according to his opponents, and is now against it.

Early on in his campaign, Romney said the economy was the most significant factor in the upcoming election.

The economy is particularly raw in South Carolina, where unemployment now stands at 9.9 per cent. Until recently, it had been as high as 20 per cent in some of the state’s rural counties.

Romney promises to use his executive experience to create employment.

But he has been stung by the accusations that his company was nothing more than a vehicle to enrich executives and throw common people out of jobs.

Despite a strong anti-government feeling among voters, South Carolina gets a lot of jobs from the federal government through military contracts. If South Carolina were a country, it would be one of the mightiest in the world. It also has more military retirees per capita than any other state in the nation.

Senator Lindsey Graham has strongly criticised the president’s plan to cut $1 trillion out of the military budget over the next decade, rallying South Carolina voters with patriotism. But it’s clearly a case of economics in a state where 20 per cent of the workforce depends on a government pay cheque.

Any way you slice this, Romney can be a winner on this issue. But if he promises to overturn Obama’s military cuts, as some are reporting, Romney should reveal where he will balance the budget.

Finally, the state has a large share of evangelical Christians. Republicans are starting to warm to Mormonism as it looks like Romney will be the nominee, but it’s a sore point with the evangelicals and conservative Christian groups. They say Mormons, who believe Joseph Smith was a prophet sent by Christ, are not truly Christians.

If Romney can walk through this thicket of challenges with a significant win, he’ll be a serious contender. But what does significant mean? It means getting over half of the 500,000 Republicans in the state to vote for him. It means that he rids himself of all serious competitors, particularly Rick Santorum.

And if he does not? Romney will come into the fall election without the necessary mandate from his own party. Obama, who some say will raise close to $1 billion for this fall’s battle, is waiting.