Ruto’s foray into Rift Valley likely to bump into winds of political dissent

The last time I wrote about Deputy President William Ruto was May last year. Since then, I have barely noticed him.

Perhaps this is because he was busy dealing with that small personal matter at The Hague. Last week, when he reappeared on my radar, I noted that I had not really missed much.

My argument close to a year ago was that though the DP is, indeed, a powerful person, his power is largely ethnic, circumscribed and contingent.

Constitutionally, his value is based upon the unlikely potential that he will assume the presidency if and when the incumbent is incapable of holding office either due to illness, death or if the National Assembly finds serious reason to impeach him.

I argued that the DP is, therefore, largely a plan B, a role that he had played very well in shielding the presidency. But his ethnic base was getting very infuriated.

I also noted then that when patience in the face of provocation by his allies did not work, he resorted to whipping them back into line and here rested the problem.

The general outline of my argument then remains strong. With respect to his approach to politics, the DP remains rather petty. He intervenes and comments on everything from electricity bills to village brawls between politicians.

In fact, Isaac Ruto, the Council of Governors chairman, believes that not only is the DP unnecessarily intervening where problems already exist, he actually ferments some of them.

VEHEMENTLY OPPOSE

This is the same feeling among the Maasai, who think that his hand was in the Narok saga that led some legislators to vehemently oppose the Narok governor.

This saw the Maasai block the Narok-Mai Mahiu road and jam the court, forcing DPP Keriako Tobiko, himself a Maasai, to personally rush to court to plead bail for the politicians who had been arrested.

The one notable change in the life of the Deputy President is that the fight against Isaac Ruto is now public, explicit and joined. Time is ripe to pop some popcorn, sit comfortably and watch the movie. What is also interesting is that the cast is eerily familiar. You have the legendary test tube politicians.

I cannot recall if Ahmednassir Abdullahi noted that the test tube politicians were gendered, but the cast this time is clearly gendered. You can anticipate the Mr and Mrs Smith scenario full with its gendered flavour. I am not sure though that Joyce Laboso can effectively play Angelina Jolie.

I imagine the Deputy President knows that Governor Ruto is no walkover. I am reminded that after the 2007 elections, it is this Ruto who led the dissent against Raila Odinga.

Today, like in the past, Isaac Ruto uses almost the same words against the DP that he used against Odinga. He accused Odinga of being dictatorial. William Ruto was to similarly accuse Odinga of dictatorship.

This time, however, the proverbial chicken has come home to roost. Not only is Isaac Ruto accusing the DP of dictatorship in the URP, but he is also accusing him of fermenting trouble in Bomet County. He has threatened to collaborate with Cord on devolution.

This threat is consequential as Cord is strong on devolution. Few are the governors who want to rock the boat of devolution. Isaac Ruto, therefore, comes with some backing from colleagues.

The DP’s foray into Kalenjin Rift Valley is also likely to bump into another small problem by the name Gideon Moi, the Senator from Baringo County and heir apparent to the Moi legacy.

Again, newspaper reports indicate that the Deputy President was quick last week to dismiss the Senator. With too many fronts to fight and what appears as an apparent lack of tact in handling dissent, does one just need more supply of popcorn?

Godwin Murunga is Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Development Studies, University of Nairobi