Some Cord elements likely to vote with Jubilee

Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) leader Raila Odinga and other leaders arrive at Uhuru Park on September 23, 2015, during a rally to show solidarity with the striking teachers. I hold that if the motion by Cord seeking the impeachment of President Uhuru Kenyatta makes it to the floor of the House, it will be defeated. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • My main reason is simply that nothing unites a governing grouping so tightly than an urgent or desperate call to protect power.
  • Two, there would be no guarantee that the governing coalition would emerge triumphant at the presidential poll at the next General Election or after 60 days if the Speaker took over.
  • In view of the foregoing both the governing and opposing coalitions would be called upon to think seriously about the implications of taking the country through what will be a traumatic and acrimonious, divisive and polarising, albeit perfectly legal, political process.

I hold that if the motion by the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) seeking the impeachment of President Uhuru Kenyatta makes it to the floor of the House, it will be defeated.

My main reason is simply that nothing unites a governing grouping so tightly than an urgent or desperate call to protect power.

The governing Jubilee Coalition has the necessary majority to defeat the motion. If the coalition uses what it has come to flaunt as the tyranny of numbers to push through unpopular legislation and nominees to the Cabinet, protecting power will present a much more important prospect on which to unleash this tyranny.

Of course, it is tempting to argue that if President Kenyatta was impeached, then Jubilee would still retain power because Deputy President William Ruto would, as per the constitution, take over.

And, if for some reason, he did not, then Speaker Justin Muturi would take charge.

DIVISIVE POLITICAL PROCESS

But it is worth bearing some factors in mind. One, the impeachment of the President would seriously damage the Presidency, which is composed of the Office of the President and that of his deputy and, therefore, the Jubilee Coalition.

The opposition would go into the next General Election greatly energised and emboldened.

Two, there would be no guarantee that the governing coalition would emerge triumphant at the presidential poll at the next General Election or after 60 days if the Speaker took over.

Indeed, 60 days could prove to be far too volatile as a transition to the incoming presidency.

Three, in view of the foregoing both the governing and opposing coalitions would be called upon to think seriously about the implications of taking the country through what will be a traumatic and acrimonious, divisive and polarising, albeit perfectly legal, political process.

If both sides of the political divide look at impeachment of the head of state along these lines, it is possible that some elements in Cord will vote with Jubilee, despite their myriad misgivings about its governance, to defeat the motion.

I find it difficult to believe, then, Jubilee legislators would vote to cripple their government.

DON'T ROCK THE BOAT
How about the motion which seeks to impeach Devolution and Planning Cabinet Secretary Anne Waiguru?

First, let us remember that no sooner had Ms Waiguru settled in her hugely important ministry, which has linkages that cut across government, than a similar motion was introduced in the National Assembly.

Igembe South MP Mithika Linturi charged that Ms Waiguru was arrogant and disrespectful of MPs and, worse, the constitution.

The motion generated a great deal of heat and consternation in Jubilee and excitement in Cord. But when Mr Linturi was supposed to move it, he was nowhere to be found. He killed his own motion.

Mr Linturi will never live down the fact that he let down his MP colleagues. Enter the fire-spitting and controversial Nandi MP Alfred Keter.

He too is accusing Ms Waiguru of violating the constitution in presiding over the National Youth Service (NYS) where more than Sh700 million has been reported missing.

Now, Mr Linturi is from the President’s The National Alliance (TNA) side of Jubilee while Mr Keter is from Deputy President William Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP) side.

Just as the President’s men asked Mr Linturi not to play the enemy within, so also is the DP asking URP legislators not to rock the boat.

KEEP DP HAPPY
But, there is still a little local difficulty. In my view, Mr Keter is using the impeachment motion to pressure the President to reinstate Mr Ruto’s allies who were kicked out of the Cabinet early in the year over corruption.

They have been cleared but have not been returned to the Cabinet.

It is possible that the DP did not ask Mr Keter to move against Ms Waiguru who is President Kenyatta’s right and left hand man in government, but it is highly likely he would not mind the discomfiture it is causing his boss.

The President would not want to see Jubilee lawmakers gang up with Cord’s against Ms Waiguru.

Of course, presidents have been known to throw their confidants out of government under public pressure.

Mr Daniel Moi sidelined Mr Nicholas Biwott over the unresolved murder of Foreign minister Robert Ouko and Mr Mwai Kibaki forced Mr David Mwiraria to resign over the Anglo-Leasing scandal.

For now Mr Kenyatta may still sit pretty over Waiguru and the missing NYS billions because he is not yet at crisis point. But, he must keep the DP happy.