Spin-doctoring should not derail our democracy in 2016

Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) leader Raila Odinga addresses journalists at the party's office in Upperhill on December 10, 2015. Mr Raila is more vulnerable on the road to 2017 than he was in 2007 or 2013 when he was, to all intents and purposes, an incumbent. PHOTO | JAMES EKWAM | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Whatever else it may portend, 2016 is the year of deep strategy, where Kenyans face the same stark moral choices between truth and trickery that confronted the ancient Greeks.
  • As the year kicks off, recent surveys show that the ruling Jubilee Coalition is ahead of the pack in popularity among Kenyan voters with slightly over 45 pc of public support.
  • The opposition’s hopes rest on the idea that delivery on the economy and development only counts for slightly over 40 pc in re-elections.

“Do not trust the horse, Trojans. Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks, even bearing gifts,” warned the Trojan priest, Laocoon.

Ignoring this wise counsel, King Priam of Troy allowed the famous Trojan horse — a gigantic wooden horse “left behind by the fleeing Greeks” with 50 Greek soldiers inside it — to be hauled into the city.

The rest of the Trojan horse trick that ended the decade-long Trojan War is familiar: the hidden Greek soldiers got out of the horse and opened the gates of Troy to the advancing Greek army which massacred its citizens.

The hero of Trojan War was Odysseus, the creator of Trojan horse and master strategist renowned for his brilliance, guile, and versatility.

But Odysseus is also remembered as the man who elevated opportunism and trickery over virtue and truth.

Whatever else it may portend, 2016 is the year of deep strategy, where Kenyans face the same stark moral choices between truth and trickery that confronted the ancient Greeks.

With less than 19 months to the next General Election, the horses have bolted.

Thrusting these strategic choices to the fore are efforts by political protagonists to position their parties and leaders to win or retain power in 2017.

Each of the coalitions is gearing to adopt strategies to extend its lead.

As the year kicks off, recent surveys show that the ruling Jubilee Coalition is ahead of the pack in popularity among Kenyan voters with slightly over 45 pc of public support.

JUBILEE ACHIEVEMENTS
It is expected to push for a strong strategy to overcome all odds and win an outright re-election of President Uhuru Kenyatta for a second term, clinch a commanding lead in the 12th Parliament, the 2nd Senate and a majority of seats in the County Assemblies and gubernatorial elections in order to give his coalition a firm hand in devolved governments.

Jubilee’s strategy is to secure a decisive first round victory to avoid a run-off and the uncertainties that repeat elections spawn.

To achieve this, Jubilee is counting on Kenyatta’s reputation as a charismatic and development-oriented leader of integrity with no known corruption allegation attached to him in public debates.

Its pundits are trumpeting the coalition’s achievements.

The Jubilee coalition has been emboldened by research showing that it has met nearly 60 pc of its 2013 electoral promises within the first 30 months in office.

Cheap electricity is now available to the poor; all primary schools are connected to the national grid; maternal health has made mothers safer and youth, women and the disabled have more opportunities in the modern sector.

Kenya’s first ever Standard Gauge Railway — Kenyatta’s flagship project — is on course to go past Nairobi by 2017.

Containment of terrorism in recent months has seen travel advisories lifted and tourism surge.

Despite claims of the government clawing back on democratic gains, Jubilee wonks insist that they have successfully implemented the devolved system of government under the new constitution, and expanded democratic liberties.

For over two decades now, Kenya has no political prisoners, its largely private media has grown exponentially, no single newspaper has been shut down and the Internet is one of the most vibrant in the developing world.

PARTY'S WEAKNESSES

In 2015, foreign visitors and dignitaries — from President Barack Obama to Pope Francis — have trooped into the country, ending the fear of Kenya’s isolation as a pariah nation after the 2013 election and affirming Kenya’s place as a regional pivot and global leader

But Kenyatta and Jubilee are still vulnerable.

Re-elections are everywhere becoming a high-risk business.

The myth that “incumbents do not lose elections” no longer holds water.

At least not after President Obama’s razor-thin lead in his 2012 re-election campaign — after a landslide victory in 2008.

Recent electoral defeats of sitting presidents in Nigeria and Malawi have emboldened opposition parties across the world.

Kenyatta’s coalition has seen blips of disunity and rebellion.

It lacks the cutting-edge political technologies to shock and awe the opposition, which has persistently painted it as corrupt.

The “Kenyatta brand” aside, the presidency is still vulnerable to anti-Kikuyu sentiment — typified by the one-against-41 campaign that soared the fortunes of ODM and Odinga in 2007.

Even more ominous, the ICC case against DP William Ruto and Joshua Sang hangs over the country and the coalition like the proverbial Sword of Damocles.

ELECTIONS STRATEGY
The opposition’s hopes rest on the idea that delivery on the economy and development only counts for slightly over 40 pc in re-elections.

However, its hope for a first round victory is very slim. As in 2013, its hopes lie in a strong strategy to force a run-off.

It is, therefore, investing its every dime in strategy as the game changer in blocking Kenyatta from clinching an outright victory.

A run-off would enable Raila to put together a powerful coalition to either win the elections or challenge the results if he loses.

One option is a campaign of mass protests with the hope of forcing 2008-style grand coalition where Raila will be a co-principal to Kenyatta — and hopefully take on William Ruto in 2022.

But the opposition has to rise from the ashes like the Sphinx.

Raila is more vulnerable on the road to 2017 than he was in 2007 or 2013 when he was, to all intents and purposes, an incumbent.

Raila has to overcome the image of a serial loser while his limited understanding of economic matters is a huge liability as Kenya gears to become a middle-income country.

Finally, he has to hold his coalition together.