The roadmap to a peaceful March 4 election

Prophets of doom, both local and foreign, are feverishly predicting chaos and post-election violence as we prepare for the final stretch to the March elections.

These false prophets base their theses on flawed and self-serving data and a poor reading of the country’s history and probable voting patterns.

Many incredibly argue that just because we had violence after the 2007 polls, there will be a repeat. Such rough hypotheses need debunking with simple facts, objective analysis and probable predictions.

The 2013 election is very different from the 2007 poll. In 2007, we had a sitting president seeking a second term in office. The 2007 election was defined by a poisonous and spiteful personal feud between President Mwai Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga.

The 2007 polls were shaped by the politics of Narc, allegations of betrayal and the noxious fallout from the failed attempt to enact a new constitution.

In 2007, Mr Kibaki won re-election from a narrow ethnic base and was greatly helped by voters from smaller tribes.

Finally, the 2007/2008 violence was sparked by a biased foreign brigade, clueless electoral body and election observers who simply made up their mind that Mr Kibaki stole the elections.

One of the least interrogated facets of the violence remains the role the European Union election observers played in sparking the 2007 post-election mayhem.

Their self-indulgent declaration based on unproven facts that massive rigging occurred in Molo and Thika helped to spark the violence.

The March 4 election will be a different ball game. Mr Kibaki is retiring and has no interest in who takes over.

We have a new constitutional order that reshuffled the deck. We have a reformed judiciary and a police force that is wiser. We have a new electoral body with new faces and energy.

The process of run-off between the top two candidates in the first round is a cooling process. The country is not very tribally polarised. The average electorate is wiser and more calculating. The Jubilee and Cord alliances are well matched in terms of strong personalities.

In making the March election peaceful, I suggest the following road map. First, the voter must realise that the country is more important than the leaders he/she wants to elect.

The country is our sole national asset, more so for the poor average Kenyan. Voters must shun violence.

Second, foreign observers like the European Union must realise that their primary function is to observe the election. It is not their business to act god. They must learn from their calamitous mission in 2007.

Third, the American, British and European Union embassies should respect the desire and will of the Kenyan people. Kenyans are tired of diplomats on temporary visa who pretend to know or love Kenya more than Kenyans.

Four, Jua Kali opinion polls by Infotrack, Ipsos Synovate, et al, should stop. Pollsters play a critical role in predicting elections. But in many developing countries, pollsters simply don’t have the capacity to conduct scientific polls.

We don’t want false predictions that will later create an impression that the polls were rigged.

Five, the IEBC must run a flawless process. It must be firm, fair and fearless. The commission must enforce the letter of the law and show Kenyans that it is firmly in charge.

Six, the judiciary and the police must be ready for any eventuality. They must be ready for all probable scenarios.

Lastly, Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi must give a public pledge that they will concede defeat if they lose the presidential election.

We don’t want leaders to refuse to concede defeat and shout loud that their imaginary votes have been stolen.

The writer is the publisher, Nairobi Law Monthly [email protected]