There is no easy and guaranteed path to victory in 2017 election

In his New Year message, President Uhuru Kenyatta expressed confidence that he would be re-elected.

Indeed, a recent opinion poll shows him likely to win by over 50 per cent if elections were called.

As expected, Jubilee leaders took the cue to taunt the Opposition.

Other analysts are already ruling out an opposition win, suggesting that the coming polls can only go “one way”.

It is easy to see where this perception is coming from.

The “dynamic duo” of President Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto, as former President Mwai Kibaki called them, represented something new in Kenya’s presidency.

The coalescence of bountiful energy, youthful flair and controversy was almost refreshing.

Both Kenyatta and Ruto are charismatic politicians.

Kenyatta’s unrestrained bear hugs, easy deportment and active social media presence were a complete departure from the hard, dour, ‘colonial’ demeanour of his predecessors.

For the duo, every moment has public relations value — from ‘unannounced’ walk-ins into the homes of ordinary Kenyans, where the President shares meals and small talk and takes selfies with ordinary Kenyans, to the Deputy President’s spirited defence of the regime on television.

Despite their wealth, both have nearly succeeded in positioning themselves as commoners.

NOTHING TO OFFER
But beyond Jubilee’s perceived achievements the coalition runs the risk of providing Kenya its first one-term presidency. Here is why.

First, the elite consensus that swept Uhuru Kenyatta to power, involving a Kalenjin-Kikuyu revolving power succession plan, is exclusionary.

While it was crucial in winning power, such arrangements must radically evolve to maintain power.

The pact is perceived as a close-ended, long-term tiki-taka between the two communities that, at its apex, leaves no room for “others” perceived to be outside the coalition’s nucleus.

The rigidly in-built structure of Jubilee explains why it has not forged any significant alliances beyond its primary bases since 2013.

It has few carrots to dangle. Strangely, the coalition often points to its predictable leadership beyond 2017 as a sign of its preparedness for the coming elections.

This fact is, obviously, a major weakness.

Second, scholars of African politics highlight the grand coalition government, with all its quarrels, as Kenya’s most successful political dispensation.

It was, perhaps, the least corrupt and most effective political arrangement.

It is during this time that progress in national cohesion was made, the economy grew and infrastructure designed and expanded.

Kenya’s post-2017 era rests in coalitions that can be as inclusive as possible.

The coalition that will craft an inclusive power sharing mechanism will have a better chance of winning the next elections.

The structural power arrangements in Jubilee make it difficult to engineer a broader coalition.

DEFEAT
Third, 2016 ushered a political wave in the continent that either blew away or heavily shook incumbents.

From the ANC’s humiliation in municipal polls in South Africa, Gabon’s contested polls and Ethiopia’s popular uprisings to the recent loss of incumbent presidents in Ghana and The Gambia, the political momentum is likely to run its full course through 2017, when Kenyans go to the polls.

Like the clamour for pluralism in the early 1990s, political movements in Africa have contagion effect.

Finally, the perception of large-scale corruption in the Jubilee government is likely to hurt its prospects for a second term.

This view is hardly helped by the scale at which some in its leadership do business with the State.

Even among its strongholds, there is a growing sense of concern.

This, alongside growing fears of possible political betrayal in Jubilee Party after 2017, the unintended outcome of an elite deal with little grassroots participation, is likely to fragment sections of its support base.

Still, the huge advantage of incumbency for Jubilee cannot be ignored.

This remains its greatest weapon. Mercifully, the last time an incumbent party (Kanu) lost, transfer of power was peaceful and Kenyatta, flanked by Ruto, read Kenya’s first televised speech conceding defeat to a united Opposition.

Dr Omanga is a media studies lecturer at Moi University. [email protected]