What will unfold inside Jubilee if it wins a second term?

One possibility is that Jubilee will win the next elections and earn a second term in office. In that event, Uhuru Kenyatta will be President for a second and final term, with William Ruto as Deputy President. What will unfold inside Jubilee, if it gets a second term, and how will it affect Kenya?

A second term for Jubilee will go towards fulfilling the prediction of its leadership that Jubilee will rule the country until 2032. A second term for Jubilee means that Kenyatta will find it possible to relax and to become more magnanimous than he has been during the first term.

Already a remarkably hands-off person, Kenyatta will withdraw even farther from having to personally direct the affairs of his party and those of the country. This will create a vacuum in leadership and other people will fill that vacuum.

As Deputy President, Ruto is best placed to naturally grow into the vacuum created by Kenyatta’s retreat. He will use this opportunity to demonstrate that he is ready to become the next President of Kenya and, more importantly, he will use it to shape the country’s events in a manner that is most favourable to his political ambitions.

Even in the Rift Valley, from where he derives his core support, Ruto currently faces significant opposition. However, a second term will ameliorate that and Ruto’s political appeal will increase. Whatever Ruto’s shortcomings, the region will recognise that he represents their best chance for the presidency, and is likely to back him unconditionally.

In those circumstances, the opposition that he currently faces from the Rift Valley will reduce and Gideon Moi, seen as his main challenger for the Rift Valley mantle, will be marginalised and the Moi dynasty will come under threat.

However, a Jubilee second term will also come with new challenges for Ruto. It has always been clear that a section of Jubilee members from central Kenya are uncomfortable with the possibility of a Ruto presidency. Although a Jubilee win will consolidate Ruto’s hold in the Rift Valley, it will also increase opposition from within Jubilee.

BLOCK PRESIDENTIAL AMBITIONS

To his opponents in Jubilee, Ruto will become expendable as soon as Kenyatta lands a second term and they will seek ways to block his presidential ambitions.

While internal opposition to Ruto will increase, it will be difficult to get rid of the Deputy President because of the role he would have played in getting Kenyatta to that point. His opponents in Jubilee will seek to recruit Kenyatta into supporting their schemes while Ruto will also demand that Kenyatta should actively endorse him for 2022.

In that case, Kenyatta will be caught between two opposing groups from within Jubilee. Kenyatta’s history suggests that he always goes with the wishes of the central Kenya region on all big issues. Based on that, Kenyatta will probably be drawn into the anti-Ruto side, something that will set off another round of recriminations about betrayal.

To many analysts, the substratum of the Jubilee party is held by the Kenyatta side with Ruto seen as a makeweight. Without the guarantee of support from the Kenyatta side in 2022, Ruto is likely to embark on building a coalition with actors outside Jubilee.

Such endeavours will alarm his opponents within Jubilee into commencing rival efforts at coalition building. A power struggle will ensue in Jubilee with Ruto simultaneously trying to consolidate his position within and also seeking alliances outside.

A repeat of the 1978 history will be under way, when powerful leaders from central Kenya tried, unsuccessfully, to prevent Daniel Moi, a man from the Rift Valley, from succeeding the senior Kenyatta as president.

ATTRACTS STRONG OPPOSITION

Outside of Jubilee, Ruto attracts strong opposition that seems unique and personal to him. A second term in office will consolidate the opposition against Ruto outside of Jubilee and there will be a natural tendency among his opponents, both within and outside Jubilee, to work together. An anti-Ruto group within Jubilee would attract significant support from outside of Jubilee.

As Deputy President, and with considerable control over the apparatus of State, Ruto will be compelled to come down hard on his opponents and he will deploy, against Jubilee’s own supporters, the repressive infrastructure that Jubilee is currently using against the opposition.

In other words, what is currently going round will come round and will be used against the core of Jubilee.

A Jubilee win would come against the opposition whose current luminaries include Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula. A Jubilee re-election will leave the opposition dejected and in despair and will make it clear that no plan by the opposition is likely to defeat Jubilee.

In that case, opposition leaders will have to make other plans if they wish to get into public office in future elections. A Jubilee re-election will make Ruto the standard-bearer in Kenya’s future politics, a position that Raila has enjoyed for a long time now.

However, the current opposition leadership regards Ruto as their junior in politics, and almost none of them would be prepared to defer to the Deputy President. This would leave the opposition with difficult choices.

They would have to queue behind Ruto and negotiate for whatever junior positions they can get, or compete at lower levels where Ruto will not have to be involved. The option of retiring from politics will also be available to them.

With Ruto, a young leader, as the standard-bearer, there will be a transformation of the country’s politics as he is likely to groom younger politicians, whom he can patronise, into positions of leadership. The average age of national level leaders will reduce and many senior politicians will retire.

Jubilee has presented the forthcoming elections as a final push that will decisively put the opposition in its place and usher the country into a tranquil period under Jubilee leadership. Based on this analysis, such tranquillity seems elusive and, even with a Jubilee win, will only mark the beginning of another round of ethnically-driven intrigues.

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