Who’s behind terror attacks against innocent Kenyans?

The recent terror attacks on Kenya could be the tip of an iceberg. Methinks that very dark forces are at work. Some very bad people are trying to wreck Kenya.

Unless security is quickly restored, Kenya could become another African catastrophe.

Terrorists, drug cartels, criminal gangs, secessionists, rogue politicians, and merchants of impunity are tearing at Kenya’s fabric.

Mark my words. It’s not a long distance from here to Somalia, or the DRC.

Which begs the question – why does the Kenyan State appear to be asleep at the switch when the country is under attack?

Is it incompetence, complicity with the attackers, or State failure?

Let’s take a “deep dive”. I have three theories about who’s attacking Kenya.

States the world over rarely reveal grave security risks to the public. Even in more open democracies like the United States, secret services are ordinarily tight-lipped.

They may foil, or thwart, a terror attack. But you rarely hear about it unless someone is charged in open court, or a political decision is made to tell the public. This is as it should be.

Otherwise sources and methods of intelligence gathering could be compromised.

Equally worse, on-going investigations could be breached. That’s why states rarely reveal to the public even 10 per cent of what they know.

But in Kenya, one gets the impression the State doesn’t know much, or is either unable or unwilling, to act on what it knows to end terror attacks.

My first theory is that Al-Shabaab has been behind “only a few” of the terror attacks.

Some of these seem to have been by “freelance” amateur terrorists. By which I mean incompetent and misguided locals fired up by crude Taliban ideology.

Such attacks lack sophistication and careful planning. Their execution has been primitive. It’s clear that Al-Shabaab hasn’t carried out many serious attacks on Kenya.

They’ve tried, but haven’t been wildly successful. I suspect that Al-Shabaab will be quick to claim responsibility when – and if – it launches a spectacularly successful attack on Kenya.

That’s how terror works – the true terrorist is keen to claim credit for his handiwork. That’s why Al-Shabaab may not be behind many of the grenade attacks.

My second theory is based on deductive reasoning. This is investigation by elimination.