Why Uhuru and Raila rematch still offers fun for the neutrals

President Uhuru Kenyatta greets opposition leader Raila Odinga at Hiriga village in Nyeri during the burial of Governor Nderitu Gachagua on March 6, 2017. PHOTO | PSCU

What you need to know:

  • Going by the outcome of the last encounter in 2013, President Kenyatta is considered the favourite on paper.
  • The loathing is mutual, and Mr Odinga will himself do anything to claim Mr Kenyatta’s scalp.
  • Raila Odinga is still smarting from two painful losses in the past 10 years in which Mr Kenyatta played some role.
  • If Mr Odinga doesn’t beat Mr Kenyatta this time round, he may never get the chance to do so in his life time.

The stage is set for a rematch between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga on August 8, 2017.

Going by the outcome of the last encounter in 2013, President Kenyatta is considered the favourite on paper.

There is also the notion that the retention of the Raila-Kalonzo ticket by the new opposition coalition, National Super Alliance (Nasa), takes away the excitement in the 2017 race.

Yet the personal motivation for the candidates to annihilate each other politically simply won’t allow for a dull moment for the neutrals.

Neither will the high stakes in the election let history decide it.

LEVERS OF POWER

What is in it for Mr Kenyatta? Everything, depending on who you ask. He is the incumbent, the man who has controlled the levers of power in the past four years.

The token devolution of resources aside, he still has the yam and the knife.

And it is not just the trappings of power that Mr Kenyatta will be out to secure for another five years by winning the next election.

There is also the small matter of uncomfortable history and the profile of the opponent to think about.

Lose, and he becomes Kenya’s first one-term president. As if that would be no humiliation enough, the defeat would have been inflicted by the man who delayed his entry into power in 2002 and challenged him to the presidency in 2013!

PAINFUL LOSSES

The loathing is mutual, and Mr Odinga will himself do anything to claim Mr Kenyatta’s scalp.

The opposition leader is still smarting from two painful losses in the past 10 years in which Mr Kenyatta played some role.

In 2007, Mr Kenyatta abandoned the opposition and threw his weight behind then incumbent Mwai Kibaki, who went on to fend off a strong challenge by Mr Odinga to retain his seat in that year’s presidential election.

Five years later, Mr Kenyatta upstaged Mr Odinga to succeed Mr Kibaki in a battle that was only settled at the Supreme Court.

For Mr Odinga, 2017 is the moment for revenge – and the last one at that.

CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

Barring a constitutional change in future, the presidential term limit bars Mr Kenyatta from running for the presidency again after this year’s election.

If Mr Odinga doesn’t beat Mr Kenyatta this time round, he may never get the chance to do so in his life time.

Media reports of the Nasa deal suggest that the opposition leader committed to be a one-term president in case he wins, or to never seek election as president again.

Some of his supporters have termed his latest effort ‘the one-bullet campaign’, citing the widely held perception that this is his last shot at the presidency following unsuccessful bids in 1997, 2002 and 2013.
Hit or miss, one thing you don’t expect Mr Odinga to do is run a boring campaign.

Mr Kenyatta is sure to be all-action as well.

Sit back.

The writer is the chief sub-editor, ‘Business Daily’. [email protected]. @otienootieno