Why it is the ‘small’ people who fight over election results

The August 8 General Election in Kenya has ended up in the Supreme Court with opposition veteran Raila Odinga challenging President Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election.

We are getting some insights into the technical side of the election—how the myriad forms work, the election law and technology.

In the end though, there are some questions about the politics of elections that shall not be answered.

Perhaps the most vexing is why really there was post-election violence in the Kibera and Mathare slums and not in, say, Westlands.

The popular narrative is that the poor people in the slums are manipulated by the elite to protest; meanwhile, their own families live happily in the rich suburbs, or abroad, out of harm’s way.

POLITICIANS

Social media was full of exhortations to the masses not to “be used” by selfish politicians. That they will be the biggest losers.

This line of argument is uniform in every African election—because it is usually the poor areas that erupt in violence.

But is it really true that the people in the slums and other poor folks have the least to gain from elections in Africa and the elite benefit most?

How we have answered this question has influenced how we manage election risk, and it seems we have got it wrong.

Consider, for purposes of argument, five people in Nairobi. One is a successful Opposition-leaning lawyer.

The other is a popular cake maker in Westlands, who is a supporter of the Opposition.

OPPOSITION ACTIVIST

The third is a small-scale shopkeeper in Kibera. The fourth is a garage owner in Mathare, whose brother is an opposition politician.

And the fifth is a high school graduate who is a casual labourer in Kibera and a diehard local youth opposition activist.

If the Opposition wins, the lawyer might become Justice minister. But he will still live in Lavington and his children will still go to Brookhouse School.

Should the opposition candidate lose, he could get to make money off their election petition but he will still live in Lavington and his children will still go to Brookhouse.

The popular cake maker in Westlands might be disadvantaged.

GHOST TOWN

The part of the city where I live was a ghost town for the week before the election and the 10 days thereafter. The diplomats, expatriates and the Kenyan bourgeoisie took off, not wanting to hang around in case things went horribly wrong.

The cake maker, therefore, might see a sharp drop in business as these are the fellows who order birthday and anniversary cakes.

It’s possible, therefore, that, despite his political views, the cake maker would prefer there be no elections and the uncertainty they bring.

Otherwise, whatever the result, it will not affect his business.

The small-scale shopkeeper in Kibera has the most to lose. That is because any violence means his shop is likely to be looted.

VIOLENCE

And, unlike the big guys in the malls who might take out risk insurance, he doesn’t. Election violence could potentially wipe him out.

Also, whether Uhuru was re-elected or Raila won wouldn’t make a difference to his business.

For the garage owner in Mathare, though, the story could be very different.

If the Opposition won and his relative got a top State job, he could begin sending a bunch of government cars to be serviced at inflated prices at his garage.

He could move from making a profit of Sh100,000 to bagging Sh2 million a month!

What about the casual labourer in Kibera?

DRAMATIC CHANGE

He, too, could see a dramatic change in his fortunes. If his party won, he could now get a job as a messenger and move from earning Sh2,500 to making Sh17,000 a month with a few perks.

He could get a chit and find an easy entrance as a recruit in the police service.

So, while—if their political stars align—the elite can profit from electoral outcomes, only a few of them do. Elections don’t change their lives much.

The people for whom an election result can make a totally life-changing difference are the jobless blokes in Kibera and Mathare.

Therefore, contrary to the generally accepted view that they have the least to gain, they might, on the contrary, have the most to lose.

It might, at first, seem improbable but this election was less about Uhuru and Raila.

It—and others to come for a long time—will primarily be about the small folks in places like Kibera and Mathare.

The author is publisher of Africapedia.com and Roguechiefs.com. Twitter: @cobbo3