Will Nasa cruise with magical 10m votes in coming elections?

Nasa principals, from left, Musalia Mudavadi, Raila Odinga, Isaac Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang'ula at Bomas of Kenya on April 20, 2017. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Nasa's dreams of breaking the 10 million votes barrier to secure an early and decisive win against Jubilee, its main adversary.
  • Such an outcome is really a herculean for Nasa, which has endorsed Raila Odinga as its leader and presidential candidate to challenge Jubilee’s Uhuru Kenyatta.
  • Nasa on its part has to convince the voters what it will do and how it will do it, essentially, its record of policies and implementation don’t exist.

The youth of Kenya complain about three things that they see going wrong: Corruption, tribalism and lack of jobs or economic opportunities.

These issues will most likely dominate the scramble for the 19.5 million voters in the August 8 General Election.

The National Super Alliance (Nasa) dreams of breaking the 10 million votes barrier (51 per cent of the registered voters) to secure an early and decisive win against Jubilee, its main adversary.

But considering that voter turn-out is usually much lower than the registered voters, it means the total potential number of voters will be around 16 million, and hitting 10 million supporters will mean securing over 60 percent of the total votes cast.

Such an outcome is really a herculean for Nasa, which has endorsed Raila Odinga as its leader and presidential candidate to challenge Jubilee’s President Uhuru Kenyatta.

INFLUENCE VOTERS

Nasa’s hope is to influence voters to see and hear evil in whatever Jubilee does or has failed to do, but the more noise it makes about this, the more it seems to be struggling to remain afloat.

The first major weakness in Nasa’s strategy is that it lacks an economic blueprint that will convince voters that it can grow the economy, reduce poverty and offer the youth opportunities to make a decent living, without relying on hand-outs from politicians.

Such a promise isn’t in the written document that the party will launch with much fanfare as its campaign progresses.

WRITTEN SCRIPT

A party’s policies are defined not by the written script but by the key pronouncements of its leaders in the public gallery.

Kenyans are more educated and more interactive than ever before, hence, they engage intelligently on the source of the squabbles and differences that characterize election campaigns.

Whatever Mr Odinga and his deputies say in public defines their thinking, which gives voters a sneak preview of the kind of policies they are likely to push for if elected to government.

Jubilee’s policies are clearer as they are under implementation, but even then, campaign talks allow the voters to debate the direction President Kenyatta and his team are taking the country, and how they are likely to shape up if re-elected.

Being in power, Jubilee has to be judged on how it’s implementing government policies, which are already documented.

CONVINCE VOTER

Nasa on its part has to convince the voters what it will do and how it will do it, essentially, its record of policies and implementation don’t exist.

But there are quite a few things that Mr Odinga and his team are well known for.

The first is that Mr Odinga is the engine of Nasa, and he has a long history of mobilizing masses for good and bad reasons.

The problem with his street democracy is that it disrupts the country and hurts the business community—the same people who are supposed to grow their businesses and create jobs for the voters who elect the president.

The business class also can’t trust a leader who incites workers not to pay rent, which is a component of the income that makes economies prosper.

STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES

The second major weakness is in the choice Nasa deputies, who have exposed serious structural weaknesses in the party’s framework. Mr Odinga’s running mate, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, is hanging on a thin thread as his party, Wiper Democratic Party, crumbles from within.

The revolt started when he gave up his presidential bid and make a “secret” deal with Mr Odinga.

He also faces a major onslaught from Dr Alfred Mutua and his Chap party, which has captured significant presence in Eastern and Central regions.

The other party deputies, Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang'ula and Isaac Ruto, have their own baggage that could well compromise their ability to contribute to Nasa’s target votes.

BROAD CAMPAIGN

The third weakness is in the kind of issues that Nasa has focused on as part of its broad campaign to whip up anti-government sentiments.

It blames the government for mishandling the food crisis that has affected most parts of Kenya in recent months, resulting from the worst drought affecting Kenya and other countries in the Horn of Africa.

Questioning government policy is part of the opposition’s docket, but Nasa’s leaders should blame themselves for stalling government projects that are being implemented to strengthen Kenya’s drought resilience and mitigation.

Mr Odinga’s campaign against the Northern Collector Tunnel project, which is funded by the World Bank to increase the volume of water in Ndakaini dam and improve water supply to Nairobi, has delayed the implementation process.

UNDER INVESTIGATION

The project is now under investigation by the World Bank’s Inspection Panel and in the meantime, Nairobi residents continue to experience a water deficit of 200,000 cubic meters a day, which has now been aggravated by drought.

The Nasa leader has sustained a similar campaign against Iteere dam in Nakuru County, claiming that it will accelerate desertification of several countries in the region.

The issue here is not the merits and demerits of a campaign against development projects.

It is the nuisance factor that it creates in the implementation of projects that have gone through the rigorous processes defined by the government and the financiers.

It would be wishful thinking for Nasa to imagine that bilateral and multilateral development agencies can suspend or abandon projects negotiated by the government simply to stop Jubilee from taking credit for the benefits of such projects to beneficiaries.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Projects are implemented by the government in power as part of its economic development strategy and many projects transition through one regime to another, so long as the agreed implementation framework remains independent of political interference.

Come the day of the ballot, the choice of the voters will be determined by how much they feel Jubilee or Nasa will fulfil their needs.

The promise of a good election starts with respecting the independence and integrity of the IEBC, the institutions mandated by the Constitution to conduct free and fair elections, and the Judiciary, which has the responsibility of resolving electoral disputes.

Stalling the electoral process will have serious economic and social consequences.


Mr Warutere is a director of Mashariki Communications Ltd; [email protected]