Will Raila’s ‘political empire’ stand after confidant’s death?

The passing on of Homa Bay Senator Gerald Otieno Kajwang’ comes unpropitiously when opposition leader Raila Odinga needed him most. Mr Odinga eulogised Kajwang’ as a “trusted confidant”, adviser and strategist, who was in the ODM think-tank and in the inner sanctum of his Nyanza loyalists.

In many respects, Kajwang’ has been to Raila what Pio Gama Pinto was to Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. Jaramogi lauded Pinto as his chief political adviser, strategist and the soul of the Kenyan left. After Pinto was assassinated in 1965, Jaramogi’s political empire shrunk speedily.

Kajwang’ exits as “Rome” (Luo Nyanza) burns. In one sense, in the aftermath of the 2013 election, Raila stands at the crossroads of history, facing a festering discontent in Luo Nyanza. As a Luo friend evinced, after nearly five decades in the political cold, “the Luo are a deeply traumatised nation”. 

The Luo started off as a community in the core of power in the decades after the British declared a State of Emergency in 1952 and purged the Kikuyu – and allied Meru, Embu and Mbeere cousins – from strategic government jobs because their support of the Mau Mau fighters posed a threat to security.

The British mooted a silent policy of enlisting the elite from the “less risky” Luo, Kalenjin, Kamba and Luhya groups to replace the “Mau Mau” communities. 

Colonialism was laced with racism. Owing to their good education, the Luo rose to the top of the African caste occupying prestigious jobs in the government, provincial administration, railways, posts and telecommunications in the colonial pecking order next to the Somali, Arabs, Asians and Europeans in that ascending order.

'SIRKAL'

Generations later, Luo football fans would flamboyantly refer to themselves as “Sirikali” without recognising the colonial origin of this term. After 1963, a strategic alliance between Kikuyu and Luo nationalists like Achieng Oneko, Tom Mboya and Oginga Odinga enabled the Luo elite to take prime jobs, including top cabinet positions. “The mzungus had gone, we [Luo] were the remaining mzungus,” reminiscent a Luo elder.

However, two tragic events changed all this. One was the resignation of Odinga as Jomo Kenyatta’s Vice-President in 1966. Sadly, those who followed Jaramogi out of the government were mainly his Luo MPs and one Cabinet Minister, Achieng Oneko. The other event was the assassination of Tom Mboya in 1969. Mboya was the last senior-most Luo leader in government.

After a decade at the helm of state power, a visibly angry leadership retreated into Luo Nyanza, transforming the region into the Mecca of protest politics. The disintegration of the Kikuyu-Luo nationalist alliance gave way to an uneasy Kikuyu-Kalenjin détente that saw Daniel arap Moi replace Jaramogi Odinga as Vice-President and, eventually, Jomo Kenyatta as President.

A string of electoral losses in multi-party Kenya dampened the Luo hope of a quick return to power via the democratic route. 

ODINGA DYNASTY

The senior Odinga came fourth in 1992 (behind Moi, Kenneth Matiba and Mwai Kibaki). And his youthful political heir, Raila, lost the 1997, 2007 and 2013 presidential elections.

The Odingas have blamed their serial electoral losses to election rigging, which has won sympathy among the Luo masses and rallied them behind the “Odinga Dynasty”. 

However, after 2013, critical voices in Luo Nyanza are beginning to doubt the rigging claim. Based on the estimated breakdown of the 14.2 million votes by ethnic community, critics posit that the Luo power elite has been artlessly punching way above its weight.  At 11.9 per cent, the Luo are fourth behind the Gema cluster — Kikuyu, Embu and Meru — (32.7 per cent), Luhya (12.67 per cent) and Kalenjin (11.9 per cent) with the Kamba (10.9 per cent) slightly behind. 

But what has fuelled the raging revolt against the Odinga dynasty is a recent IPSOs Synovate study which ranked Luo Nyanza at the bottom of the pile. Statistics are scarily: 167 infants in every 1,000 die before the age of five years in Siaya County compared to 52 in the neighboring Nyamira County. The adult crude death rate in Nyanza is 19 per thousand compared to 8.7 in the Rift Valley and Central Kenya.

One in every five children in Siaya and Migori counties is an orphan compared to one in every 10 children in Kisii and Nyamira counties. Finally, according to 2007 figures, the HIV /Aids prevalence in Nyanza is 15 pc compared to 3.9 pc in Central Kenya, 5.9 pc in Western and 6.7 pc in the Rift Valley.

The Nyanza rebels are calling for dialogue to pull Luo Nyanza back from the brink. On the extreme end of this call for dialogue is former Raila adviser Miguna Miguna who, in an interview with Jeff Koinange Life on KTN, threatened to call a referendum to decide the future of the Odinga dynasty.  

Nyanza’s developmentalists like Dalmas Otieno, Evans Kidero, Raphael Tuju and Odoyo Owidi are for an inclusive regional dialogue on development and a radical shift from the hard-nosed politics of confrontation to a “constructive engagement” with the government.

From early this year Raila, backed by a clique of Luo hardliners, has wielded a heavy stick against ODM rebels. In February, ODM’s infamous “Men in Black” disrupted the party’s elections. On October 30, some Members of the Nairobi County Assembly forcibly ejected party executive director Magerer Langat from a parliamentary group meeting, accusing him of being a traitor.

The notorious “Men in Black” were back, this time during the Friday, November 14 meeting in Oyugis, Homa Bay County, which Kajwang’ hosted. They confronted journalists and blocked cameras from focusing on the main dais, accusing them of fuelling the protest in ODM. It was also here that Raila declared war on party rebels. “You are either with me or with the enemy,” he declared. 

Like Pinto, Kajwang’ was the soul of ODM supremacists. Will Raila’s political empire stand after his demise? 

Prof Peter Kagwanja is the Chief Executive of the Africa Policy Institute and former Government Adviser.