A tale of three Donald Trumps rolled into one

United States President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, DC on March 28, 2017. PHOTO | JIM WATSON | AFP

What you need to know:

  • The first Trump is the friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

  • The second one is a greedy businessman.

  • The third is a populist and demagogue.

Never in recent history has a change of leadership attracted as much attention and speculation as Donald Trump’s rise to the United States presidency. What this change signifies and what it portends requires unravelling three mysteries, because there are three versions of Trump.

The first Trump is the friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s enthusiasm for Putin is the most consistent part of his rhetoric. Despite a worldview that regards the US as a victim of foreign powers – China, Mexico, Iran, the European Union – Trump’s ardour for Putin burns bright.

Depending on who is opining, Trump is either a naive admirer of strongmen like Putin or a long-time tool of Russian intelligence. There is almost surely a backstory here that could destroy Trump’s administration if some of the lurid rumours are confirmed. We now know that some key dates and details in the infamous “dossier” on Trump’s relations with Putin, assembled by a former British intelligence officer, have been verified. A growing body of circumstantial evidence suggests that Trump has been backed by Russian money for decades. Russian oligarchs may have saved Trump from personal bankruptcy, and one reportedly travelled to a number of Trump’s campaign stops, perhaps acting as a go-between with the Kremlin. And many top members of Trump’s team – including his first campaign manager, Mr Paul Manafort; recently-ousted National Security Adviser Michael Flynn; former ExxonMobil CEO and now Secretary of State Rex Tillerson; and hedge-fund magnate and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross – all have significant business dealings with Russia or Russian oligarchs.

PERSONAL WEALTH

The second version of Trump is a greedy businessman. Trump seems intent on transforming the presidency into another source of personal wealth. In violation of the standards set by the Office of Government Ethics, Trump is keeping his business empire, while family members manoeuvre to monetise the Trump name in new investments.

The third Trump is a populist and demagogue. Trump is a nonstop font of lies, who brushes aside the inevitable corrections by the media with the charge of “fake news”. For the first time in modern American history, the president is demonising the press. Recently, the White House barred The New York Times, CNN, Politico, and the Los Angeles Times from a news briefing by the press secretary. On some interpretations, his demagogy is in the service of chief strategist Stephen Bannon, who defends a dark vision of a coming war of civilisations. By raising fear to the highest possible level, Trump aims to create a violent America-first nationalism. Hermann Göring chillingly explained the formula from his Nuremberg cell after World War II: “[T]he people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country”.

ARE ONE

Another theory is that all three Trumps are really one. Trump the businessman has long been supported by the Russians. Trump’s attacks on the press, intelligence agencies, and the FBI specifically aim to discredit them in advance of further revelations. Those of us who lived through Watergate remember how difficult it was to hold Richard Nixon to account. Without the revelation of secret White House tapes, Nixon almost surely would have escaped impeachment. The same was true with Flynn, who lied time and again to the public, and to Vice-President Michael Pence, about his communications with the Russian ambassador. Yet, like Nixon, he was tripped up only because his lies were recorded, in this case by the US intelligence agencies.

When Flynn’s lies were exposed, Trump’s reaction, was to attack the leak, not the lies. Trump has so far kept America’s plutocrats happy, through promises of tax cuts, while mesmerising his white working-class followers with executive orders to deport illegal immigrants and bar arrivals from Muslim-majority countries.

None of this has made Trump very popular. His approval ratings are historically low for a new president, around 40 per cent, with roughly 55 per cent of respondents disapproving. But no one should ever underestimate a demagogue’s willingness to use fear and violence – even war – to maintain power. And if Putin is, indeed, his backer and partner, Trump’s temptations will be strong.

Prof Jeffrey Sachs is director, UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2017.