Are Kenyan youth aware of their power and numbers?

From the outside, the August election appears a mere repeat of the 2013 contest. The faces on the ballot paper may be the same but the context for this year’s poll has, however, radically altered.

The Jubilee and Nasa exclusive ownership rights on their parties proved no guarantee that only preferred candidates made it on to the ballot sheet. Aggrieved and ambitious aspirants jumped ship and so we will have thousands of independent candidates competing and frequently winning in seven weeks.

The emergence of a multitude of independent candidates, therefore, not only is a threat to the existing political order it is also a death sentence to the six-piece suit preference of the party leaders. The six-piece suit has stifled democracy and is a real danger to devolution. The 2013 elections resulted in Mombasa county assembly having 30 ODM MCAs and no opposition. The first assembly was thereafter characterised by indolence, arrogance, incompetence and corruption. They sang the praises of their governor but twenty four of them were dumped by the electorate in the recent nominations. Six-piece suits are stifling and breed dictatorship at a devolved level. Democracy requires competition and oversight at every level.

CONTEXTUAL VOTE

The third major contextual change in this year’s vote is the youth vote. Last week, I wrote how the youth will almost certainly have the biggest say in who ascends to State House in August. In 2013, the 18 to 29 age group made up 20 per cent of the registered voters. In 2017, they will be 8.85 million or 46 per cent of voters. If you include all of those under 35 years of age that are eligible to vote, then the figure rises to 60 per cent.

If you believe in the tyranny of numbers theory then know that there has been a seismic demographic shift towards youth. The question remains as to whether the youth themselves have become aware of the power and the numbers they possess and are able to set an agenda that is line with their vision for a more just, equitable and cohesive nation. Put another way, are the youth going to vote along predictable, ethnic lines like their parents or can they demonstrate a maturity and a vision that is more becoming to their needs and future?

Perhaps the youth have not been mobilised for change but they still have time to impact on the August ballot. The vast majority of the millions who frequent social media are in the 18 to 35 age bracket. They can set up hashtags and campaign on youth issues overnight. They don’t have to attend rallies but can campaign on WhatsApp groups and mobilise locally.

The youth have been taken for granted for decades, bought off with false promises and free T-Shirts. They know they have been betrayed by the first generation of elected leaders. Yet the still have the power and the chance to protest, rebel and be heard. Their time has come and with a tiny provocation they can determine the outcome of the August ballot. After all, they are in the best position to take advantage of a new order so they have no choice but to vote for change.

Fr Gabriel Dolan is an Irish missionary priest who has been working in Kenya since 1982. He is currently based in Mombasa.

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