If we don’t make things, kill graft and fix security, we won’t get wealthy

What you need to know:

  • I have been looking over some figures, and I don’t understand the basis of all this optimism that things are going to get better, economically speaking.
  • We used to rely on tourism. But after the boys down at the Coast decided it was a grand thing to conduct massacres in Mpeketoni and to shoot tourists in the face in Old Town, our beach tourism is basically dead today.
  • The European Union is in the process of consigning our horticulture to the morgue over failure to sign an agreement with the East African Community.
  • Tea is dying. The volumes, at half a million tons, are not bad. But the prices, at Sh177 a kilo, are a far cry from the four-year high of Sh293.85 in August 2011.

Kenya’s national fabric is drenched in tribalism. I fear that even basic perception, such as of colour, will soon be tribe-defined.

Thus, if a Kisii and a Giriama are presented with the colour green, one will see red and the other blue. We may even, in the short run, evolve into totally different but mutually predatory species.

It makes a commentator’s job very difficult. Everything I write these days has three clusters of meaning. First, it has the meaning I intended, which is perhaps neither here nor there. Then it has a cluster of meaning for the Jubilee tribes and a diametrically opposed cluster of meaning for the Cord-allied tribes. It is very tiresome and very boring.

So I am going to tackle an issue which we probably can all agree on. A week ago, Kenya reviewed the measurement of its economic activities in what I prefer to think of as the Big Bang, the result of which it ceased being a low-income, 24th largest economy in Africa, to a middle-income 9th biggest economy on the continent.

The average income in Kenya in 2012 was $840. This is half of the average income in Africa (these are Africa Development Bank numbers). What this means is that though a small group might be working hard and making lots of money, there is a large majority being marginalised from wealth creation. Inequality of necessity produces poverty.

I am not sophisticated in my view of economics. In my opinion, a country grows rich in three ways. First, it manufactures many things, which it sells to the world – step forward China, India, South Korea and others.

Secondly, if it has a powerful military and has historical influence in the affairs of nations, it can steal other country’s resources, manipulate international trade or “sell services” to poor countries. (Your guess is as good as mine).

Thirdly, a poor country can be rich if it is, for some reason, desirable in the eyes of the world’s powers. Such a country is like a beautiful mistress whose ample bosom the world’s bullies would like to fondle, perhaps to spite, weaken or challenge another bully. (I probably shouldn’t give examples).

I don’t think anyone in their right minds would like to fondle Kenya. We are given to defiance and making ourselves generally disagreeable. It is possible that we have in the past been a great military power, with control over the affairs of humanity. But that must have been when we were hunters and gatherers. Which leaves us with one means of getting rich: Make and sell things.

BASIS OF OPTIMISM

I have been looking over some figures, and I don’t understand the basis of all this optimism that things are going to get better, economically speaking.

The closure of the Eveready factory in Nakuru because of the importation of crap batteries from China does not convince me that the local manufacturing picture is rosy.

We used to rely on tourism. But after the boys down at the Coast decided it was a grand thing to conduct massacres in Mpeketoni and to shoot tourists in the face in Old Town, our beach tourism is basically dead today.

The causes of insecurity are rooted in another country, domestic institutional rot and age-old grievances. Correcting all this will take time – and perhaps a miracle.

The European Union is in the process of consigning our horticulture to the morgue over failure to sign an agreement with the East African Community. Horticulture is big business for our country. In 2012 we earned Sh55 billion from the export of 100,000 tons of cut flowers, Sh4.5 billion from 31 tons of fruits and Sh22 billion from 77,000 tons of vegetables.

We did not protect this business and so even though we had since 2004 to hammer out a deal, we still haven’t. Other East African countries, especially Tanzania, which Kenya is guilty of isolating, just doesn’t care that much for the European market and it will perhaps be far from easy to do a deal with.

Tea is dying. The volumes, at half a million tons, are not bad. But the prices, at Sh177 a kilo, are a far cry from the four-year high of Sh293.85 in August 2011. Coffee is in the coffin. Prices are not atrocious, but we expect less than 5,000 tons a month.

Fix these pillars, lay the foundation for better distribution of wealth, kill corruption, then you can be sure your railways and ports will have some meaning.