If independents fail, it will confirm that political parties own the electoral process

Members of Kenya Alliance of Independent Candidates in show of solidarity during their rally at Ihururu stadium in Nyeri on May 27, 2017. Parties have only been jolted by independents and will rally and streamline their nomination processes to survive. PHOTO | JOSEPH KANYI | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Strong leaders and parties guarantee candidates media attention and coverage.
  • They will not be guided by party manifestos but their own or may choose not to publish policy documents.

Last August I argued that the leaders of the mainstream political parties would have to survive the aftermath of their nomination processes because these visit havoc on the unions, candidates and membership.

I also wrote that this and a proposed change in electoral law would see a rise in the number of independent candidates.

In February I argued that nominations would present nightmares to parties and their leadership and test their fidelity to democracy; diligence to large-scale operational and logistical organisation; and respect for party values and principles.

PARTY INFLUENCE
If shambolic, I said, primaries could unleash instant misery on parties, candidates and membership and, worse, stall the march of democracy.

However, nothing could have prepared me for the 4,950 avalanche of applications for independent candidacies.

I touched on this matter last week and wish to pursue it today by posing the following question: What do independents portend for Kenya’s democracy?

First, my understanding of independence.

This is to be free of, or freed from, the influence, leadership, direction, structures, strictures, ideology and manifesto, of a political party, as to qualify to compete against it.

NO ALLEGIANCE

This means parties stand to lose their importance and influence to, or be otherwise adversely affected by, the rise of candidates who neither owe them allegiance nor money in form of membership, nomination or monthly fees.

Example one: Mr Raila Odinga, the presidential flagbearer of the National Super Alliance (Nasa), last week asked the coalition’s supporters not to vote for independents because their election would deny him majorities in the National Assembly and Senate, which he will need to govern should he become president.

Such was the swiftness and ferocity of the fightback and backlash, Mr Odinga withdrew his attack on independents especially in his Nyanza backyard.

SUPPORT UHURU
Example two: The governing Jubilee Party at first appeared keen to keep the independents at bay, with apparatchiks such as Majority Leader Aden Duale asking them to support President Kenyatta’s re-election without conditions.

But these voices petered out as swiftly as they had been to respond to the emergence of an association of independents and their well-attended meeting in Nairobi last weekend. Independents had demonstrated clout.

So the party primaries witnessed this and last month have become irrelevant because losers became independents to take on the winners in the August 8 General Election.

What does this mean for the immediate future?

POPULAR LEADER

The performance of independents will be closely watched because their success will lead many to question the importance of parties.

Why pay to join a party and to compete for its ticket when you can tough it out as an independent and be elected?

The reverse is that if independents fail, it will confirm that parties own the electoral process.

Mainstream parties bring the institutional name, brand and influence to bear on an electoral contest to the benefit of its candidates.

Such parties extend organisational and logistical support to their candidates.

The main asset party candidates may have is a popular leader whose vision and acumen could carry them to power.

MEDIA COVERAGE

Strong leaders and parties guarantee candidates media attention and coverage.

Party sponsored candidates are accountable to their parties but independents, while claiming to be answerable to the electorate, could easily be their own bosses.

They will not be guided by party manifestos but their own or may choose not to publish policy documents.

So, if Kenya has had a particracy (rule by parties), could the rise of independents shift the calculus?

RESOURCES
Not yet. An independent will not be elected president and if that happened, he would have to make deals with legislators just to find a proposer and seconder for proposed legislation, and yet more legislators to canvass support for the Bills in both Houses of Parliament.

Governing could be Sisyphean. But losers at gubernatorial primaries, winning as independents at the General Election, would just steal the clothes of their immediate former parties and proceed to govern.

For independents to prevail in general elections, they will have to be strong, well established and resourced or resourceful personalities.

But how do parties survive without membership and monthly fees, especially from MPs and Senators, and nomination fees from election hopefuls?

We will not get there. Parties have only been jolted by independents and will rally and streamline their nomination processes to survive.

Opanga is a commentator with a bias for politics [email protected]