Jubilee seeking to create enemy out of local NGOs

Since the end of 2016, Jubilee has been pursuing a policy of political aggravation with two distinct strands. The first strand is the provocation of the political opposition and independent voices, which began with the presidential ban on voter education on Jamhuri Day, and was followed by an audacious push in the legislature that culminated in the amendment of election laws, a process that created tumultuous scenes and contributed to a further polarisation of the country. Thereafter, there has been a crackdown on independent actors, including a purported regulatory shutdown of IFES and an attempt to also close down the country’s leading human rights organisation, the Kenya Human Rights Commission. There is also a directive from the Ministry of Interior to county officials to monitor the activities of NGOs, seen as a throwback to the country’s authoritarian past.

The second strand has been a campaign to create fear within Jubilee’s power base in central Kenya. An advertisement on a vernacular radio that broadcasts in the region is urging residents to come out to register to vote in order to protect “the kingdom”. While the National Cohesion and Integration Commission is investigating the possibility that the advertisement may amount to a crime, this did not deter President Uhuru Kenyatta, who has also camped in the region to promote voter registration, from lending his support to a station whose actions are under investigation. There have also been reports of speeches at funerals in the region, that if Kenyatta fails to win re-election, men from the area will boycott wearing long trousers.

SHAPE PREPARATIONS

While the new political intolerance has been interpreted as an attempt by Jubilee to use its incumbency to shape preparations for the next elections in a manner favourable to its interests, it is a little more than that. The deteriorating political atmosphere, a deliberate creation of Jubilee, seeks to manage public expectations about the outcome of the elections. Jubilee is sending a message that, contrary to expectations that might exist in some quarters, there is no intention that the elections in August will be free or fair. The need for such an early message is to minimise public anger, and the danger of large-scale disorder, as might arise if the population was to discover only very late, that the elections were mismanaged. A logical part of this message is an early indication that Jubilee does not intend to leave power any time soon. The “instrumentalised” tensions also help to keep in check any political exuberance in opposition areas, as would raise levels of participation in those areas. To explain 2013, Jubilee created a narrative that the threat of ICC cases motivated a large turnout from its strongholds, which resulted in its unlikely Jubilee victory. Through the ongoing crackdown, Jubilee is shaping, in advance, a narrative that will explain its retention of power after these elections: something like, “although the elections were marred by massive pre-election irregularities, Jubilee won.” It feels as though the crackdown is cover for something more objectionable which could emerge later.

The ultimate objective behind the campaign of fear in central Kenya is to create favourable conditions for the creation of a platform of ethnic nationalism in the area. In 2013, against the threat of the ICC cases in which Kenyatta was an accused person, Jubilee successfully mobilised the support of his home region during elections. Under vastly different circumstances, Jubilee seeks to repeat its act in 2017.

LACKS THREAT

However, with the ICC cases now concluded, Jubilee lacks a threat as a mobilising force. As a substitute, Jubilee is seeking to create a domestic enemy out of local NGOs and the mysterious foreign interests that support them. To achieve this, Jubilee is employing a mixture of tactics, including creating fear that central Kenya’s interests will suffer profoundly if the party loses political power, and a portrayal of the interests of the area as unique from those of the rest of the country. Jubilee is promoting a view that the people of central Kenya expect of government to let them be so that they go about their business. What is left unsaid is that other parts of the country have different expectations of the government, and that only Jubilee has the ability to meet this simple expectation from the people of central Kenya. Jubilee is also creating an ideology of superiority in central Kenya, the threat to boycott wearing long trousers.

While Jubilee is hoping that its portrayal of the mysterious foreign interest with its local network of NGOs will suffice as an external threat, the ruling party is not stopping there. It is also now portraying other parts of the country outside of central Kenya as the external threat. The radio advert was clear that one of the reasons the people of central Kenya must come out to vote is that other parts of the country were doing so in competition.

ABDICATED ROLE

In an attempt to win a competitive election, Kenyatta has abdicated his role as a unifying figure for the country, choosing to retreat into an ethnic shell, one which identifies the rest of the country as its problem. This is a further decline of a President already facing other serious challenges. Kenyatta has redefined himself as a sectional chief, rather than as President of the country, and whatever the outcome of the next elections, his legitimacy and the ability to lead will now come under great strain as a result of his recent choices.

In all this, the Opposition is not without a role. In the past it has been accused of the kind of wedge politics that Jubilee is playing now. This was in 2007 and left the country shattered in violence.
The opposition can seek to compete with Jubilee, a decision that would leave the country racing to the bottom, or the opposition can pitch a tent high enough for everyone, including Jubilee supporters, to fit in.
That would make Jubilee irrelevant and would set the country in a path towards overcoming the ruinous decisions Jubilee has imposed on the country.

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