Kenyans have limited options ahead of election

We have entered the rough and tumultuous stage of our election process, and the signs are increasingly ominous. The present iteration of the IEBC is walking firmly in its predecessors’ nyayos (footsteps), taking us into the abyss of confusion, as wrangles, intrigues, single-sourcing and wilful incompetence reign supreme.

We have been here before, and we should be wary when confusion is deliberately sowed, with staff firings, reports of infighting, deliberate delays and lies with procurement so that favoured suppliers can be given tenders for particular purposes.

The fact that we have been busy “verifying” our registration details — in a register that has not been cleaned or audited — should worry us, for how will we know if the register is ever cleaned up and audited after this exercise? There is already significant evidence of dead people’s names and details still active in the ‘register’ — if it could be called that given the mess in that database! Moreover, in some stations, inputting the number zero, or two, still brings up ‘voters’ names!

This is not just incompetence by the IEBC. This is wilfulness aimed at raising as much dust as possible to cover possible ulterior actions. It is a common tactic in autocratic and dictatorial regimes and institutions. For we define a democracy as one with certain processes that produces uncertain results, and autocratic regimes as those with uncertain, messy and confused processes, but with certain results.

SUPPORT'S RATIONALE

The confusion, sadly, is also within us as voters. Over the last weeks, I have spoken to a sizeable number of Jubilee supporters seeking to understand the rationale behind their support for this regime. These are all intelligent, reasonable people that I deeply respect. And all, without exception, are disgusted by the naked theft and looting; they deride the incompetence of the regime; and are worried by the levels of exclusion and discrimination of the majority that defines this regime.

This week’s compensation for of Gusii IDPs from 2008 illustrates this exclusion perfectly. While Gikuyu IDPs and Kalenjin squatters from the Embobut forest were each granted Sh400,000 per family in 2013 as reparations, four years on, the Gusii IDPs are given about Sh50,000 per family. Now how can that be rationally explained? What makes a Gikuyu IDP’s or a Kalenjin squatter’s pain worth more than four times a Gusii IDP’s?

Be that as it may, the responses from the Jubilee supporters have been interesting. One of the most common refrains has been to quote the idiom, “better the devil you know than the one you don’t”. Seems reasonable.

But we are 100 per cent certain that where Jubilee is taking us is into more looting, division, tensions and autocratic tendencies. Yes, Nasa, or Mr Joe Nyaga or Dr Ekuru Aukot may also take us down that route, but there is a 50 per cent chance that they will reverse the trend. What is the reasonable option to take here?

'STOP DIGGING'

And then there is the adage “if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!” We are in a hole for sure — including the cost of living, and massive indebtedness (where the debtor tells us that our debt is okay!) — and few of us, Jubilee supporters included, believe that this devil we know has a clue on how to stop digging.

Others have said that despite the looting from NYS, Eurobond, Mafya House, et cetera. what riles them is Nasa’s rhetoric that tenants will be protected if they do not pay rent. Whether Nasa has actually said that or not is uncertain — especially since Nasa leaders are probably all landlords themselves. But if our economy shrinks, as is almost guaranteed by the political crisis we will inevitably get into because of the looting, the incompetence, the ethnic divisions and tensions amongst us, let alone the succession intrigues of 2022 which will be massive if Jubilee gets back in power, will there be a sufficient market to get this rent over the years?

This is probably the most important election since 1992 and 2002. The 1992 one set the stage for repression and destruction of the economy as predicted. The 2002 one gave us hope and space to rise again. This one will determine if we repeat 1992 or 2002.

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