Lessons Jubilee leadership can learn from Brexit

The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have massive impact on the UK, Europe and the rest of the world. It is the classic case, as a diplomat remarked, of “choices have consequences”, even if the choices are unintended. Already, overt and public racist abuse is rising across England targeting Asians, Poles and other “immigrants”. Some Scots have also reported xenophobic abuse.

Internationally, the vote confirms the rise of the extreme far right across the world, complete with its intolerance, racism, xenophobia and fundamentalist nationalistic impulses. A few months ago, the Philippines elected a president best known as a rabble rouser who advocates the lynching of suspected criminals without trial, and who has made comments seeming to condone the rape of women.

And there is also India, which has a prime minister who has been implicated—by action or omission--in the massacres of thousands of Muslims in his native state of Gujarati and whose membership to an intolerant fundamentalist Hindu grouping is a source of concern. Across Europe the far right is in ascendance driven by fears of “the other” and especially Muslims. We are likely to see weakening of international institutions from the EU itself which does need major reforming in structure and its legendary bureaucracy, to demands to weaken the International Criminal Court. Already the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, which has been indispensable in defending human rights in the Americas, is reeling under a budget crisis as member states refuse to pay their dues. And I will not be surprised if there is clamour by repressive governments to weaken international and regional human rights mechanisms, on both civil and economic rights, that hold them to account.

But the most significant, yet unintended, consequence could be the exit of Scotland followed by Northern Ireland, which both voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, from the UK. Great Britain could soon be the (tiny) Kingdom of England and Wales. This may not be a bad thing per se, for the idea of a country is a construct, which can increase or reduce in size at any given time as South Sudan and Eritrea confirm. What matters is that people within a country have a sense of belonging, fundamental shared values and do not feel excluded or marginalised in economic or political terms. For many reasons, the people of Scotland have such divergent gaps in ideology, values, vision and identity from England that being in the United Kingdom together seems to have fewer benefits than advantages, especially if Scotland is unable to get entry into the EU as a special case.

This, perhaps, is the most important lesson that our politicians should take from Brexit. The years of marginalisation, hatred, and exclusion of some communities could come back to bite us. This week’s statement by President Uhuru Kenyatta endorsing William Ruto as his successor in 2022 is a potent reminder to the 40 other ethnic groups of their exclusion from the political centre, and increases ethnic divisions. If this plan works (remembering the advantages of incumbency include the opportunity to rig), it would mean that for all our 69 years of independence, only two of the 42 communities would have produced presidents! This is hardly the way to increase inclusivity and reduce marginalisation, and it also contradicts the constitutional requirement that leadership reflects the “face of Kenya”.

His statement could be bluster aimed at the Kalenjin vote. And there is, of course, the fact that Mr Kenyatta has been known to rubbish agreements signed and witnessed by lawyers as Musalia Mudavadi can attest. For the record, I remain unconvinced that the Gikuyu elite—with the impact of 24 years of Daniel Moi never far from their minds—do not have plans to try to remove presidential term limits after 2017 to retain Mr Kenyatta in power, if there is no other Gikuyu politician who can control the community as he does.

In foolishly trying to resolve an internal party squabble at the national level, British Prime Minister David Cameron may well go down in history as the man who made Britain smaller. That is a lesson that Mr Kenyatta should take to heart.

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