Mudavadi one of the men to watch as 2017 General Election approaches

Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi (right) and former Agriculture Minister Kipruto arap Kirwa at the party's office in Nairobi on January 10, 2017. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • At its core, Nasa is a movement in protest at what is viewed as Jubilee’s politics of exclusion.
  • It would be unwise, of course, to write off Jubilee.

Uhuru Kenyatta had a chance to smooth his path to re-election in the last week of November 2015.

He was riding high locally and internationally. That week, Pope Francis was due to arrive in Nairobi, just months after Barack Obama came to town.

The President had fought off the charges at the International Criminal Court. And, having forced five ministers to leave the Cabinet due to graft allegations, he had the chance to bring in fresh blood and expand his political base through a reshuffle.

He lost his chance. There was speculation that the President was all set to name Musalia Mudavadi, whose Amani party was allied to Jubilee in Parliament, to the Cabinet.

That would have been a masterstroke because it would have expanded the Jubilee tent and helped tackle the biggest political perception problem the party faces – that it is, at root, an alliance between the Gema communities and the group of pastoral communities led by the Kalenjin among whom William Ruto is the key man. Word is that the coalition partners failed to agree on this and the plan to bring in Mudavadi was shelved. When the changes were announced, social media erupted. It was the latest example, Jubilee critics said, that the government was a closed tent with little space for others.

The ministers named were: Mwangi Kiunjuri, Charles Keter, Cecily Kariuki, Cleopa Mailu, Willy Bett, Joe Mucheru and Dan Kazungu.

All but two were from the strongholds of the parties. It was a political miscalculation.

HARD-FOUGHT ELECTION

The recent formation of the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa), with Mudavadi among its key figures, sets the stage for a potentially hard-fought election. At its core, Nasa is a movement in protest at what is viewed as Jubilee’s politics of exclusion.

It would be unwise, of course, to write off Jubilee. Uhuru Kenyatta is the first President in a long time to hold on to the electoral alliance that got him elected (which might explain some of the appointments he makes).

Mwai Kibaki swiftly lost the Luo vote that was a key element of the Narc alliance in 2002. Raila Odinga lost the Kalenjin constituency that was the spine of his support base in 2007.

Uhuru has succeeded in keeping his coalition together and, perhaps more importantly, formed a single political party to serve as his platform. That means JP will avoid the mistake that Kibaki’s Party of National Unity made by splitting its parliamentary votes. The irony is that while the Orange Democratic Movement in 2007 was disciplined and focused and united, the reluctance of Nasa constituent parties to dissolve means they look more like the PNU of 2007 than the formidable ODM of those times. That would change if Nasa emerges as a single party.

Still, any Jubilee member would be lying if they claimed the formation of a super alliance has not rattled them.

Whoever the candidate is, Nasa will have many advantages. They might enjoy the bandwagon effect (of many people trying to join in if, like Narc, they appear to have a good chance of winning).

MOST ETHNICISED

Kenyan elections are surely the most ethnicised in Africa and the big ethnic communities that fall under the Nasa umbrella will give the Jubilee core constituencies a run for their money.

The key factor in all this is Mudavadi, who has little to lose with the gamble he has made.

If the Nasa candidate is Raila Odinga, then Mudavadi will play along having nothing to lose. If Raila wins he will be in government. If he doesn’t, Musalia will be well positioned to take over the Nyanza/Western constituency in the post-Raila era and will have a fair shot at the presidency in 2022.

There are still many “unknown unknowns”. Perhaps the most critical is whether Nasa will stay united.

The capacity of the alliance to catch up with the level of organisation showed by JP will be key.

What is beyond doubt, though, is that there will be a tough contest and not the cakewalk that Jubilee appeared set to enjoy in 2015.

If Jubilee had expanded its tent, especially with its Cabinet appointments, it would have had an easier ride.

As things stand now, particularly with the formation of a united opposition alliance, the stage is set for a hard-fought and bitterly contested election, with Mudavadi holding many cards.

I am no fan of the fellow because of his role in Kanu in the 1990s but the son of Budamba will be one of the men to watch in 2017.

 

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Twitter: @mutigam