Are parties on their deathbeds because of independents?

From the look of things, elections in Kenya will never be the same again. Everything has gone upside down and many politicians no longer know what to think, for all their predictions have been upended. This is due to the rise of a phenomenon which very few could have foreseen – the possible death of the political party as the only vehicle that can propel them to positions of power and wealth.

In a democracy, political parties are organisations of men and women who seek to influence public policy through the use of public resources which they promise to share equitably. Every such party, ideally, seeks to ascend to power for that purpose. However, for the longest time, there was no competition between parties to indicate which one had better policies.

But from this election which will, hopefully, happen in the next 39 days, politicians may have to rethink the usefulness of political parties, and the strategies they must employ to win elections at every level. This is because of the rise of the Independent Candidate. From the presidency to the ward level, the independent candidate has sent fear coursing down the veins of many political party nominees.

ALL QUAKING

A number, even those vying for supposedly “safe” seats – safe because they are in areas where their party leaders are strongest, and even those given direct nominations – are all quaking. In years past, anyone who dared challenge them would have spent the next five years in the political wilderness, ostracised for ignoring the wishes of their party leaders. But then something strange happened.

When the two dominant political organisations, Jubilee and the then Cord, connived to outlaw party hopping after nominations, they forgot to read a clause in the Political Parties Act which allowed independents. They ruled out party hopping, but in the end, it still happened. The difference is that a whole horde of ambitious politicians, 4,000 in all, did it their way. The result is there for all to see.

Two different groups of disillusioned politicians emerged. There are those who were genuinely rigged out during the nominations, partly because their party honchos preferred their rivals or because they were running against crooks. As should have been expected, they became disgruntled, jumped ship and struck out on their own. These people are the causes of the greatest worry for those who unfairly pocketed nomination certificates.

NEVER LOSE

Then there are those fellows who, suffering from acute hubris, believed they could never lose. When they did, some by huge margins because they had completely lost touch with their electors, they couldn’t admit they had been the main architects of their ignominious defeat. They dished out blame in huge quantities to scapegoats; they wouldn’t accept that the voters they had taken for granted could ever reject them.

These people also jumped but it is not yet clear whether into a void, or whether they have learnt their lessons and have been forgiven by voters. Only the election results on August 9 will tell because, after all, the electorate can also be terribly fickle. Certainly, there is bound to be a great many upsets. Some who were rigged out may still lose, but a number will win. Others who lost to newcomers may also defeat the rightful nomination winners, which, to me, will be a great pity.

MAKE DECISION

Whatever happens eventually, one thing is certain: the established political parties will have to go back to the drawing board to decide what to do about this “menace” that has destabilised their world. If they don’t, the party as we know it will gradually atrophy. On the positive side, political parties will have to learn to conduct free and fair nominations on realising that the voter has the final word.

But on the negative side, unless things change, during the next elections, there will be a deluge of independents who might bury party politics. This, of course, will be bad for our democracy. Can you imagine a Parliament dominated by fellows who owe their loyalty to no one but their voters? How will it be possible for anyone to govern? It will be sheer anarchy.

That is why it will be necessary, nay, imperative, to rethink this whole idea of independent candidacy when a new Parliament convenes after the elections, unless, of course, the independent MPs and Senators overwhelm those elected on party tickets and outvote them.

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