Nominations have ‘orphaned’ central and Nyanza regions

What you need to know:

  • Voters want leaders who can deliver.
  • Unfortunately, they also want leaders who can behave like them.
  • They want leaders who live in the voters' world.
  • Only the Waititus and the Sonkos of this world understand the inside nature of it.

There is no doubt that political parties in Kenya have come of age. Even though some of the political parties carried out the primaries in a laughable manner, they have largely pulled out in a big way.

Of course it is unforgivable that ballot stuffing was common in some areas in the strongholds of the Jubilee Party and Orange Democratic Movement.

Popular candidates would win the party primaries but the returning officers would give the certificate to the losing candidate. This is a failure of the parties to commit themselves to an open and a credible electoral process.

But these are not really important findings on the party primaries. They should not even shock anyone because “stealing” in politics is a new normal. It does not lead to headline news anymore anywhere in the world.

The most important finding is the impact the party primaries have had on communities in Central and the Nyanza regions. The two have lost, politically, in a manner that could take several generations to recover. Also losing alongside their communities are President Uhuru Kenyatta and the leader of the National Super Alliance, Raila Odinga.

BIG LOSERS

Both President Kenyatta and former Prime Minister Odinga are big losers because some of their close allies lost in the party primaries. Some of President Kenyatta’s close allies in Central Kenya fell to relatively unknown individuals without “national political stature.” His friends such as Mr Jamleck Kamau lost the Murang’a Governor’s seat to incumbent Mr Mwangi wa Iria, who does not have a notable national profile. Mr Mutahi Kagwe also failed to win the party primaries for the governor’s seat in Nyeri while Mr Ndung’u Gethenji failed in his re-lection attempt as Tetu MP at the nominations stage.

Some allies lost to new politicians whose main claim to fame is knowledge of the local village. If none of the losers will win a seat as an independent candidate, then President Kenyatta will find himself surrounded by many people without an idea about the art of politics at the national level. They will spend the first few years learning about the game of politics in Nairobi and the corridors of Parliament.

But it is Mr Odinga who appears to have lost the most. For the first time since the 1990s, there is no other member of Mr Odinga’s immediate family who will be in elective politics. His daughter Ms Rosemary Odinga withdrew from the race for Kibra Parliamentary seat on health grounds while the fate of his sister Ms Ruth Odinga, the deputy governor of Kisumu, is not clear. Importantly, some of his allies won in a laughable manner that resembled America’s “electoral college” where a candidate would win the majority votes but still lose. Significantly, some close relatives and allies lost with big margins. His elder brother, Mr Oburu Odinga, failed by a big margin to unseat incumbent Bondo MP Gideon Ochanda. Another key ally who lost in a big way is Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo who fell to Mr Elisha Odhiambo.

SEVERAL CONSEQUENCES

The losses of key politicians in the two regions have several consequences for their respective communities. First, for Central Kenya it means there is no “heir apparent” to Mr Kenyatta as the newcomers cannot claim to be first in line. Many of them have no national stature or profile to, for example, match that of Deputy President William Ruto, Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto, Mr Musalia Mudavadi, Mr Moses Wetang’ula or Mr Kalonzo Musyoka.

Mr Odinga has a similar problem in his region. New leaders in Luo Nyanza are yet to be born. The region has not had a transition in leadership since the early 1990s when Mr Odinga, Mr James Orengo, and Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o were involved in setting up a vibrant foundation for democratic transition in the region and the country in general. But they are the last of that generation. The new leaders who have come up through the party primaries probably won because they spoke the language of devolution – they spoke “local” and ignored the national. Unfortunately, none of the new group of leaders can claim to be first in line to succeed Mr Odinga in the region and nationally.

This development in the two key regions is good for Kenya’s politics in one important respect. If none of the losing leaders will win their seats as independent candidates, then it means that the “two poles” around which divisive politics in Kenya centres will collapse. The two communities in Central and Nyanza regions will play “second fiddle” roles in national politics as they have no ready successors or “politicians of stature”.

ETHNO-REGIONAL BASE

It takes a whole generation to produce and firm up a regional-cum-national leader in Kenya. To cut teeth in politics takes not one or two elections. It takes not less than three successive elections – and more – to consolidate a strong ethno-regional and national base of support. It takes even longer to be recognised a legitimate political leader of the region at the national level. This is the reason why the Luhya suffer a leadership crisis. Some of the leaders who cut their teeth are voted out after a while. They lose the political oomph and the general ability to excite their community as national leaders.

Devolution is also complicating the manner in which one can become a regional “ethnic” leader. The resources and political powers enjoyed by the county governments make the governors and the Members of the County Assembly so important that people may not care very much about whether there is an ethnic “national” leader or not.

Party primaries manifested revolt of the ordinary people

But why did the party primaries produce these kinds of results? A quick review of the results shows only one thing: the voters were revolting against their local leaders; they are angry. In many counties, they voted out a majority of MCAs and MPs. Many Woman Representatives in the National Assembly also lost out to new people. The voters appear to be angry about something that elites seated in boardrooms in Nairobi may not be aware off. First, it appears that the voters do not want to hear anyone bragging about association with power. In the nominations, being close to the President or deputy president did not appear to help.

GIVING CONFIDENCE

They voted out those they knew are close to the former prime minister. In Ukambani, the voters in Wiper party primaries also voted out those who bragged closeness to the party leader.

It is possible that devolution is giving voters the confidence to exert themselves much better than before. In the past, they preferred such leaders because being “close to power” was good for them and the region. But devolution is providing them with “unconditional resources”. They do not need to be in opposition or on the side of the government to get “development.” All they need is to hold their leaders accountable in terms of spreading the development equitably in the county.

But some MCAs, MPs, and even governors do not seem to understand the new confidence among the voters. Being “close to power” and showing off about it, it would appear, is a crime punishable by losing votes. The voters want leaders who can deliver. Unfortunately, they also want leaders who can behave like them. They want leaders who live in the voters’ world. Only the Waititus and the Sonkos of this world understand the inside nature of it.

Prof Karuti Kanyinga is based at the Institute for Development Studies at the University of Nairobi.