Opposition unity curse haunts National Super Alliance

What you need to know:

  • Recent events and speculation on the four principals – Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula – indicate there could be a split if the picking of the presidential candidate is not handled with care.

  • Efforts to have a united Opposition coalition in the multiparty era started – and flopped – in the 1992 General Election.

Attention is focused on Nasa as the decades-old Opposition unity jinx shows signs of emerging once again.

Recent events and speculation on the four principals – Raila Odinga (ODM), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) and Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-Kenya) – indicate there could be a split if the picking of the flagbearer is not handled with care.

Efforts to have a united Opposition coalition in the multiparty era started – and flopped – in the 1992 elections when the giant Ford, which had successfully led the battle to move Kenya from Kanu’s single party rule, failed to coalesce around a single candidate. The top leaders went their separate ways with splinter parties with Mr Kenneth Matiba forming Ford-Asili, while Mr Jaramogi Oginga Odinga led Ford-Kenya. Mr Mwai Kibaki, another key Opposition leader, ran for president on a Democratic Party ticket. This handed President Daniel Moi’s Kanu victory.

Mr Moi got 1,927,645 votes against Mr Matiba’s 1,354,856, Mr Kibaki’s 1,035,507 and Mr Oginga’s 903,886 – meaning that the Opposition would have comfortably won had it fielded a single candidate.

Then came 1997 and the Opposition did some soul-searching. The “Hilton Agreement” was crafted indicating all Opposition candidates would renounce their claim to the presidency and consider a joint nomination. This was not honoured, handing President Moi victory with 2,500,865 votes followed by Mr Kibaki (1,911,742), Mr Raila Odinga (667,886), Mr Kijana Wamalwa (505,704) and Ms Charity Ngilu (488,600) among others.

LONE-RANGER POLITICS

Political events leading to the 2002 third multiparty elections were more of betrayals. Initially, Mr Odinga played lone-ranger politics before getting into a “cooperation” deal between his National Development Party and President Moi’s Kanu.

First, Mr Kibaki, Mr Wamalwa and Ms Ngilu entered the Serena Accord. However, modalities of how they would arrive at a single candidate were sketchy.

Enter Mr Simeon Nyachae with Ford-People. Once an influential figure in the public service and political spheres, he felt frustrated after Mr Moi demoted him from the high-profile Finance ministry for his remarks at an MPs’ retreat to the effect that “the government was (financially) in ICU”.

Meanwhile, Mr Odinga’s party had merged with Kanu and he was made secretary-general while other posts were split. Like other loyalists of the ruling party, Prof George Saitoti was unimpressed with the watering down of his powers and splitting of the party’s vice-presidency into four: Mr Kalonzo Musyoka (Eastern), Mr Katana Ngala (Coast), Mr Musalia Mudavadi (Western) and Mr Uhuru Kenyatta (Central). Realising the tide was against him, and his path to succeeding President Moi in 2002 was blocked, the country’s vice-president gave up the fight with his famous quote: “There come a time when the nation is greater than an individual.”

LEAD WALKOUT

But Kanu would disintegrate after Mr Moi picked Mr Kenyatta as the Kanu candidate. This would prompt Mr Odinga to lead a walkout from Kanu, taking with him Prof Saitoti, Mr Musyoka, Mr Joseph Kamotho, Mr Moody Awori and Mr William ole Ntimama, among others.

They would later join Mr Kibaki, Mr Wamalwa and Ms Ngilu to form the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc). While the push-and-pull on the flagbearer continued, Mr Odinga jumped the gun at a rally in Uhuru Park where he publicly declared “Kibaki Tosha”. Even though Mr Nyachae left to contest on a Ford People ticket, the Opposition unity led Mr Kibaki of Narc to victory against Mr Kenyatta, the Kanu candidate.

But tensions would intensify in the starry-eyed Narc government over a power-sharing deal, largely between Mr Kibaki’s and Mr Odinga’s side of the coalition. The climax of the fallout was the 2005 referendum when Mr Odinga led disgruntled politicians to beat Mr Kibaki’s side and reject the proposed constitution.

The unity curse would return to haunt the Opposition in the 2007 elections despite the success in the referendum vote when the Orange party split. Mr Musyoka ran on an ODM-Kenya ticket while Mr Odinga was the ODM candidate against incumbent Mr Kibaki of the Party of National Unity.

POLITICAL VIOLENCE

This would lead to a disputed presidential election result and the worst political violence in Kenya’s history after Mr Kibaki was declared winner with 4,584,721 votes against Mr Odinga’s 4,352,943 and Mr Musyoka’s 879,903.

Mr Kibaki quickly reached out to Mr Musyoka and appointed him vice-president even though a negotiated settlement ushered in the Grand Coalition Government with Mr Odinga as Prime Minister. The deal also midwifed a new Constitution in 2010.

The formation of Jubilee, coined from 50 years of independence, had its own intrigues. After the “dynamic duo” of Mr Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto came together, there was an inexplicable attempt to have Mr Mudavadi as the candidate. Some speculated it was because of the International Criminal Court cases that were facing Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto. But the “deal” was quickly disowned.

Jubilee eventually beat the Cord presidential ticket of Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka while Mr Mudavadi ran alone on a UDF ticket.

Now, only time will tell just how Nasa will escape the unity jinx to beat Jubilee.

The same factors which have been splitting the Opposition since 1992 appear to be at play today.

The Moi regime in 1992 encouraged a Ford split and Attorney-General Amos Wako, now Busia Senator, allowed the registration of two Ford parties: Ford-Asili and Ford-Kenya.

'KIBAKI TOSHA'

Nasa potentially risks a similar situation if negotiations are not handled well. Could another “Kibaki Tosha” moment resolve the stalemate?

Nasa’s dilemma remains the agreement in which each of the four principals pledged to support whoever is picked as flagbearer. In 1992, Mr Odinga’s father felt he was the oldest and had a legitimate claim to fly the opposition flag, an argument the ODM leader can use with the promise to be a one-term president.

Meanwhile, Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi could argue that they have supported Mr Odinga as running mates in 2007 and 2013 respectively and would want the favour returned.

But Mr Odinga, who will be looking to be on the ballot for the fourth time, still has the strong argument that even Mr Kibaki won at the third attempt and age should be seen as an advantage.

And Mr Wetang’ula can point to his freshness since he has never run for President.

One thing is, however, clear: If Nasa splits, Jubilee will have a clear path to victory.

The Moi regime in 1992 encouraged a Ford split.

Nasa potentially risks a similar situation if the technical and political wings of the negotiations do not handle issues to the satisfaction of key stakeholders.

WAS OLDEST

Nasa’s dilemma remains the agreement in which each of the four principals pledged to support whoever is picked as flagbearer.

In 1992 Mr Odinga’s father felt he was the oldest and had a legitimate claim to fly the Opposition flag in 1992, an argument the ODM leader can use with the promise to be a one-term President.

Meanwhile, Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi could argue that they have supported Mr Odinga as running mates in 2007 and 2013 respectively and would want the favour returned. Mr Kalonzo and Mr Mudavadi will be arguing that they have supported Raila as running mates on two different occasions and lost.

But Mr Odinga, who will be looking to be on the ballot for the fourth time, still has the argument that even Mr Kibaki won at the third attempt.