Have strong parties to avoid entrenching numbers' tyranny
The National Assembly in Nairobi on March 30, 2017. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP
What you need to know:
Since 2013, the minority Coalition for Reforms and Democracy has bemoaned being tyrannised by the numbers of Jubilee as the latter has gloated about its numerical supremacy.
Shat would a larger majority benefit Jubilee if not to take opposition out of the political equation?
When British Foreign Secretary Francis Pym warned against elective dictatorship in regard to the Conservatives’ thumping landslide in the 1983 General Election, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sacked him.
A bigger majority for the Jubilee Party than it enjoys now portends a sinister prospect.
They say at Westminster that when a party has a parliamentary majority it can do anything except change a woman into a man. They also say if you have a crushing majority, your government will have a doctor’s mandate or that the country will have an elective dictatorship.
Danger looms large. You have doubtless read or heard that the governing Jubilee Party targets to win 200 seats in the National Assembly and more than half of the Senate seats in the August 8 General Election. What does that mean? The Assembly and Senate have 290 and 47 elected reps respectively.
If a party wins 200 Assembly seats and garners, say, more than 30 Senate seats, it acquires a crushing majority and a massive legislative footprint.
This is especially so when it is remembered there are nominated MPs and Senators to be brought in, according to the representative strengths of the parties in the two Houses.
If the party of government has such majorities, it will ram the laws it wants through the Houses in a flash.
It will not bother to solicit Minority support for the Bills, think over or fine tune them even. Remember the chaotic scenes as Jubilee forced through the unpopular Security Amendment Bill in the Assembly in December 2014? It was evident Jubilee did not care if the Minority did not have its say, because the Majority would have its way, any way.
DOCTORS' MANDATE
What does it mean when a government has a doctor’s mandate? That, thanks to its massive majority, it can act and rule as if there is an emergency. This is because the opposition is so enfeebled as to be unable to stand up to the government or stand up for democracy. The government does what it likes, how it likes, when it likes.
This says that just as the National Super Alliance (Nasa) must plot to bag the presidency so also must it stop Jubilee from handing it a crushing defeat. First, since 2013 the Minority Coalition for Reforms and Democracy has bemoaned being tyrannised by the numbers of Jubilee as the latter has gloated about its numerical supremacy.
Second, what would a larger majority benefit Jubilee if not to take opposition out of the political equation? Power detests opposition. As leader of Kadu in 1964, Mr Daniel Moi was clear that without opposition, governing Kanu would go to sleep. As President he ushered in Kanu’s constitutional monopoly of power in 1982. Then, in 1990 and 1991 he ferociously fought a fightback for pluralism.
Third, when Foreign Secretary Francis Pym warned against elective dictatorship in regard to the Conservatives’ thumping 1983 General Election landslide, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sacked him. But when Labour and Mr Tony Blair similarly triumphed in 1997, Mrs Thatcher expressed the same fears about elective dictatorship for which she sacked Pym. Politicians only hate near, or total, monopoly when they don’t have it.
SINISTER PROSPECT
Fourth, a bigger majority for Jubilee than it enjoys now portends a sinister prospect. Parties that have been comprehensively thrashed at general elections are saddled with crises of confidence and do not return to power shortly. It took Labour 14 years to take power after the Conservatives’ 1983 landslide.
The Conservatives themselves won back power after 13 years of Labour that started with Blair’s 1997 avalanche. It took the Democrats in the US 12 years to regain the White House after Ronald Reagan’s 44-state shutout of Jimmy Carter in 1980.
It is feared that if Labour is walloped at the June 8 General Election, it will take at least a decade for the party to regroup. If Jubilee buries Nasa in an August landslide, it could take a decade for its affiliates to regroup. Kanu remains in decline since its 2002 General Election meltdown.
Flip the coin. Parties that enjoy massive majorities and stay in power for long suffer from the corrosive effect of absolute power – they are corrupted completely. They lose touch with the people and, if they always have their way, their leaders will regard themselves the centre of the universe.
In a nutshell, a massive parliamentary majority will amount to absolute power. Unfortunately, when an electoral landslide results in an elective dictatorship that is perfectly democratic.
How do we avert a doctor’s mandate? The ideal situation is for all our leading parties or coalitions to be strong and for electors to be able to vote tactically when the need arises. Easier said than done.
