Political extremism threatens to roll back democratic gains

Certainly, terrorism and political extremism are pushing Kenya’s democratic project deeper into a recession.

It is in this context that on June 8, 2016, I joined a large audience that convened to listen to one of the icons of the struggle for democracy, Mzee Charles Rubia, in a rare address to a special sitting of the Assembly of his native Murang’a County.

While noting that the “second liberation” exacted a heavy toll on his personal health and family life following his detention in July1991, he celebrated the gains made towards democratic transition. Kenya emerged as one of the estimated 60 per cent of the world’s independent states that made successful transitions to democracy by the turn of the century.

However, the title of Rubia’s speech, “I Speak of Peace,” revealed his grave concern with heightened political tensions and violence which threaten to roll back the gains made in advancing democracy, freedom and stability.

The former minister’s concern over Kenya’s at-risk democracy is well founded. In the wake of the December 2007 political violence, the country has become a byword for the phenomenon Larry Diamond described as “Democratic Rollback” (Foreign Affairs, March/April 2008).

Although the new constitution raised hopes for democratic stability, ahead of 2017 violent extremism puts democracy at great risk at the county and national levels.

Diamond and others have blamed the decline of democracy worldwide to the “resurgence of the predatory state” and a powerful authoritarian undertow resulting in poor governance.

But at the heart of Kenya’s democratic rollback is resurgent terrorism and violent political extremism. Democracy has universally been plagued by three discernible forms of terrorism and violent political extremism.
The first form of terrorism is associated with the old-type political terrorism of the fascist regimes of the colonial and one-party authoritarian hue.

Colonial and post-colonial fascist terrorism is exemplified by Hissène Habré, former president of Chad, recently found guilty of crimes against humanity by a special Senegal court. In his eight years in power (1982-1990), Habré launched a reign of terror in which an estimated 40,000 people were killed while others were raped, maimed, tortured.

Rubia was the victim of this fascist terror. When his three doctors told the government that he was very ill and would die any time, the regime “released me to go home to die instead of taking me to the hospital”, Rubia said.

In many parts of Africa, this era ended with the “Second Liberation”. However, in Kenya its relics lingered on long after the inception of the multi-party system coalesced around the so-called “imperial presidency” that was brought to an end by the 2010 constitution.

The second terrorism is associated with violent extremist groups. These come in three forms. One: Organised militias with a political agenda such as the Mombasa Republic Council (MRC) at the Kenyan coast or the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in Northern Uganda.

Two: “Indigenous” Islamic terrorist groups like Boko Haram in Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon and Al-Shabaab in the Horn of Africa. Three: International terrorist networks and their syndicates and cells in Africa such as the Al-Qaida in the Maghreb. Initial attacks on Kenya by the Al-Shabaab led to the entry of the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) into Somalia, but terrorists have subsequently attacked the Westgate mall, Garissa University and other areas.

THREATS OF VIOLENCE

The third, and newest, form of terrorism is the opposition-led terrorism. In this regard, The Star columnist, Ngunjiri Wambugu, declared on June 6, 2016 that “Cord has become a terrorist organisation.” Wambugu made three inter-related points to back his assertion.

For starters, what is happening in Kenya in the opposition-led anti-IEBC protests is terrorism, which he broadly defines as the use of violence, threats of violence, intimidation or coercion, in the pursuit of political, religious, or ideological aims.

Cord has publicly threatened to unleash mayhem, violence and bloodshed across the country if the government does not accept the demand of its elite that the IEBC be disbanded and replaced by commissioners appointed by the parties.

Two, in the context of terrorist violence, democracy is becoming its own grave-digger. Democracy has aided terrorism, which has also become effective against the system because constitutional rights allow the terrorists to organise their actions within the law while the government’s action is impeded until it becomes too late.

Frustration arising from Government inertia risks counter-protests, which would turn increasingly violent. Prolonged Cord attacks: Cord’s threats could easily turn into actual violence.

Third, the end of these attacks is to create mass fear, forcing the citizenry to slowly accept the idea that the government should do whatever it takes to stop future terror attacks, including negotiating with the terrorists. In 2014, at the height of Al-Shabaab attacks, suggestions were made that Kenya should negotiate with the group to stop further attacks on the country.

Cord is also using the strategy of mass fear to get the government to acquiesce to negotiate even if that means violating the Constitution. Not surprisingly, the effect of the terror tactic is manifested in the increasing pressure by the media, religious and private sectors as well as diplomats now ratcheting up pressure on President Kenyatta to “engage Cord”. Appeasement emboldens terrorist groups to extend their claims to other areas. After the IEBC, Cord will naturally turn to the Supreme Court, security sector and finally to demand a share in the Government.

A silver lining is, however, appearing in the dark cloud of terrorism and politically instigated violent protests. Africa is increasingly turning to homegrown solutions to solve its own problems with remarkable success.

The creation in 2013 of the Extraordinary African Chambers in Senegal’s capital, Dakar, with the backing of the African Union has enabled the successful prosecution of Hissene Habre, who was found guilty of crimes against humanity, rape, forced slavery, and kidnapping and sentenced to life in prison by the Burkinabe president of the court, Gberdao Gustave Kam.

Similarly, Charles Rubia now chairs the Council of Eminent Persons (CEP) that is using the technologies of soft power to promote peace, non-violence and healthy political competition among leaders ahead of the 2017 poll. With the council in place, Kenya may never need external mediators in the future.

Prof Kagwanja is Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute.