How politics, policy and social behaviour at play in food crisis

The controversy over the rising cost of basic food commodities has predominantly focused on political issues that the Jubilee government and the opposition are using to influence voters in the August elections.

Although President Uhuru Kenyatta has assured Kenyans of long term measures to improve food security, Nasa leader Raila Odinga wants the people to blame the government for failing in food policy and implementation.

Part of the food problem, as Nasa argues, is corruption in the food value chain.

But Nasa can’t shout too loudly about scandals lest they open a Pandora’s box.

MAIZE SCANDAL

During the drought of 2009-2011, Mr Odinga was the Prime Minister when his family was implicated in a Sh2 billion scandal, which involved inflating the cost of 75,000 tonnes of maize from South Africa.

A leaked WikiLeaks cable from then US Ambassador Michael Ranneberger alleged that Mr Odinga sacked Agriculture minister William Ruto (now Deputy President) to divert attention from his family’s involvement in the scam.

Mr Odinga was also implicated in a Sh7.6 billion scandal involving Triton Petroleum.

Corruption aside, the rising cost of basic food commodities is only the tail end of the food value chain.

FOOD PRODUCTION

The greatest contributing factor is drought, which has since last year caused an unprecedented crisis.

Since the 2011 drought, there was a recovery in food production.

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, maize output rose from 34.4 million bags in 2011 to 40 million bags the following year, and reached a peak of 42.5 million bags in 2015.

With the onset of drought, output dropped to 37.1 million bags last year, and is projected to fall further.

Other factors that affect food production include the cost of inputs.

The cost of producing a bag of maize is said to be close to the wholesale market price of Sh2,500.

SUPPLIES INPUTS

A farmer won’t find it profitable to continue growing maize—and that’s why the government regularly supplies inputs, including subsidised fertilisers and seeds.

In Rift Valley, farmers are growing French beans instead of maize.

Farmers under the USAid-funded Kenya Agricultural Value Chain Enterprises Programme make Sh200,000 on the same piece of land they could get Sh40,000 a year from maize.

In central Kenya, smallholders are replacing maize with avocados and other fruits for higher returns.

Dairy farming is also a better option. The producer problem in the food equation is compounded by the consumer preference problem.

While producers are losing interest in maize, consumers are still stuck to their old preferences.

FACTORIES CRIPPLED

The cost of putting ugali on the table continues to rise. The long-term solution is to consume food that is readily available at a stable cost, such as rice and wheat flour.

There are problems the government can fix, and others under the influence of the marketplace.

The maize sector has a well-developed open market because its production and milling are in the hands of private investors.

The sugar industry is much more complicated. The government has a stake in five companies, which account for 55 per cent of the sugar produced (600,000 tonnes a year), while the private sector has eight.

Average sugarcane production and factory output in Kenya is much less than its peers such as Sudan, and government factories are crippled by debt and inefficiencies due to old equipment and technology.

MASSIVE LOSSES

Mumias Sugar Company, the largest, has been run down, resulting in massive losses.

When Mumias shuts down, it goes down with 20 per cent of the national sugar production.

So, in addition to regular imports to bridge the demand-supply gap, consumers are forced to shoulder the burden of financing imports that have become necessary because the looting of Mumias and other firms has created a perennial deficit.

The crisis will only end when a forensic audit is conducted on the looting and those found culpable held to account.

That should make more sense to Nasa leaders but for reasons that are apparent, it doesn’t seem to fit in their campaign strategy.

Mr Warutere is a director of Mashariki Communications Ltd. [email protected]