Jubilee Party and 'National Super Alliance' setting the stage for potentially titanic clash of two visions of Kenya

It is October 20, 2017 in Nairobi, Kenya. The chief prosecutor of the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued warrants of arrest against Kenya’s former president and his deputy. As his first major decision in office, the newly sworn-in President has sent in a letter to the office of the prosecutor reaffirming the Kenya government’s co-operation with the ICC and endorsing its decision to have the two transferred to its detention centre at The Hague. ICC judges have expanded authorisation for the investigation into the 2008 post-election violence to ensure that there is sufficient evidence before moving on to trial.

Meanwhile, two months ago, Parliament amended the Constitution to re-introduce the semi-presidential system with a new executive comprising President (Musalia Mudavadi), Deputy President (Kalonzo Musyoka), Prime Minister (Raila Odinga), First Deputy Prime Minister (Gideon Moi) and Second Deputy Prime Minister (Moses Wetang’ula).

Today, social media in Kenya is awash with graphics of this vision of power now galvanising politics ahead of the 2017 elections.

Two historic events have galvanised the race for power. First is the collapse of the ICC case against President Uhuru Kenyatta on December 5, 2014 and the termination of the case against Deputy President William Ruto on April 5, 2016. The second development is the momentous launch of the Jubilee Party on September 10, 2016.

TWO VISIONS

The two developments have spawned two visions of power at odds. With the ICC millstone off their necks and riding the crest of a revamped party, the world is wide open for the two Jubilee leaders to win the 2017 election and manage a smooth transition of power from Kenyatta to Ruto.

However, the two events have also jolted the fragmented opposition leaders and Jubilee rebels to work on a strategy of wresting power from the Jubilee duo. The opposition elite is now toying with the idea of a National Super Alliance to replace the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD).

A refurbished Jubilee Party and the idea of a “National Super Alliance” are setting the stage for a potentially titanic clash of two visions of Kenya.

The first vision, identified with the ruling Jubilee Party and partly inspired by South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), is of a mass movement party pursuing a developmental agenda and transforming Kenya economically and geopolitically into a global middle power.

LOGICAL RESPONSE

Jubilee is a logical response to incessant charges that the government has an inclusion deficit because it is based on a Kikuyu-Kalenjin détente. Jubilee is, therefore, working on ANC’s model of a broad church where the communist and the capitalist, the black, the white and the coloured, the worker and the investor, men and women sit around a common table to chart their common destiny.

The party is also looking East, to China, where the Communist Party has provided unprecedented stability which has enabled it to pull millions out of poverty and to rise meteorically to the superpower status in slightly over five decades.

But to realise its vision of stable development, Jubilee has to move beyond Kasarani and build a powerful party machine to ensure internal democracy, free and fair nominations and mobilise a truly grassroots movement as a vehicle of development. It also has to mount a powerful campaign to counter the opposition’s “perpetual campaign” model particularly on bureaucratic corruption. For its vision to triumph, Jubilee has to secure a 60 per cent or even better 70 per cent victory in the 2017 elections in order to stamp its authority as an inclusive party and eclipse the rival vision, identified with Cord, and its potential successor, National Super Alliance.

Jubilee strategists view avoiding a narrowly contested presidential poll as the surest chance of pre-emptying post-election disputes, violence and instability, which have recently engulfed Zambia.

Unlike Jubilee, the Cord elite and allied Jubilee rebels are looking West, inspired by the strategy that enabled former Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara and his Rally of the Republicans (RDR) to ascend to the Presidency in Ivory Coast’s bitterly contested elections in October 2010.

RAILA ODINGA

Since 2010, Kenya’s opposition elite has closely studied the 2010 election in Cote D’Ivoire, where Raila Odinga spent a short stint as a mediator, in search of a prototype that can help its elite to come to power. The Ivorian model, which the proposed National Super Alliance is following almost to the letter, has five intricate steps to power.

First, during the first round, encourage as many ethnic and regional-based parties as possible to contest the elections to deny the incumbent an outright victory.

President Laurent Gbagbo, who scored 38.3 per cent, was forced to face Ouattara (32.1 per cent) during the run-off. The opposition’s move to call for a recount raised the stakes and legitimised a heavy intervention by international actors in the run-off.

Second, in the ensuing run-off, coble together an alliance of opposition parties to defeat the incumbent.

Third, in the pre-election phase, do everything within your power to weaken the election management body and to win a foothold within it. Your loyalists in the electoral commission will come in handy during the run-off: Get them to declare you the winner. In Cote d’Ivoire, a politically split electoral commission pushed the country to the brink.

The pro-Ouattara Commission President Youssouf Bakayoko declared Ouattara the winner in the second round with 54.1 per cent of the vote against 45.9 per cent for Gbagbo.

DECLARED WINNER

Paul Yao N’Dre, the President of the Constitutional Council, which decides on electoral disputes, and proclaims the definitive results of presidential elections, declared Gbagbo the winner with 51.45 per cent of the vote, defeating Ouattara who scored 48.55 per cent.

Fourth, gain the overt backing of pivotal international players including the United Nations and regional economic blocs to endorse your election. The international community, including the United Nations Operation in Cote d’Ivoire (ONUCI), France and the Economic Commission of West African States (Ecowas), tilted the balance in the Ivorian conflict when they recognised Ouattara as president-elect.

Finally, use the ICC to completely vanquish your rivals. Despite Gbagbo’s capture on April 11, 2011, it was not until the ICC indicted, arrested and transferred him to its detention centre in The Hague that the crisis ended.

Professor Peter Kagwanja is chief executive, Africa Policy Institute.