Brexit, terror attacks, coups, Africa must prepare for unstable economy

Policemen walk by flowers laid on the ground on la Promenade des Anglais in tribute to the victims of the deadly Bastille Day attack in Nice, on July 16, 2016. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the truck attack that killed 84 people in Nice on France's national holiday, a news service affiliated with the jihadists said on July 16. PHOTO | AFP

What you need to know:

  • Very many African economies are externally oriented and survive by exporting raw materials to Europe and South East Asia, especially China.
  • African leaders meeting in Kigali this week need to appreciate the need to go beyond rhetoric in deepening integration on the continent to boost intra-African trade.
  • No continent trades within itself less than Africa, mainly because there are very poor transport links between, say, West Africa and East Africa.
  • Massive terror attacks in France have become a normal part of French life.

May you live in interesting times. It seems the world is suffering the effects of this curse, said to have its origins in a statement by a Chinese author who declared: “I would rather be a dog in peaceful times than live as a man in turbulent times.”

Every day seems to bring an earth-shattering development. One day, British voters shock the world by voting to leave the European Union, challenging decades of conventional wisdom.

The idea that the world was becoming more “flat”, that the march of the forces of globalisation were unstoppable, has been decisively challenged by the Brexit vote, which signalled a desire among some for a smaller, more closed world.

The rise and rise of Donald Trump, an unthinkable development just two years ago, consolidates this trend.

Massive terror attacks in France have become a normal part of French life. The effect of this might be even bigger than Brexit because the Far Right leader, Marine Le Pen might conceivably take the French presidency, a dramatic development, which would truly mean the end of the European Union.

Meanwhile, some ill-prepared and confused soldiers in Turkey tried to stage a coup, disregarding the dictum from the TV series “The Wire” that “if you come at the King, you best not miss”.

All these dramatic developments have implications for Africa. Very many African economies are externally oriented. We survive by exporting raw materials primarily to Europe and South East Asia, especially China.

If the global economy wobbles, a lot of Africa will be in trouble. African leaders meeting in Kigali this week need to appreciate the need to go beyond rhetoric in deepening integration on the continent to boost intra-African trade.

POOR TRANSPORT LINKS

No continent trades within itself less than Africa, mainly because there are very poor transport links between, say, West Africa and East Africa.

Adding value to products on the continent rather than exporting them raw would boost incomes and reduce the exposure to fickle world markets.

Botswana is leading the way by insisting that diamonds be cut in Gaborone rather than in Tel Aviv or Geneva. This should happen across the continent because there is nothing especially hi-tech about making chocolate from cocoa or blending tea or making Nescafe out of coffee. Processing raw materials in these markets would boost their resiliency.

These interesting times might spell considerable instability ahead and Africa needs to find ways to survive in an uncertain world.

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The death of 16 people in just one night on Friday illustrates yet again how dangerous it is to drive on Kenyan roads. Africa has only 2 per cent of the world’s vehicles. But the continent accounts for 16 per cent of road fatalities. It is the most dangerous continent to travel by road, with 24.1 deaths per 100,000 people.

Kenya’s roads are deadly even by African standards. The fatality rate is 29.1 deaths per 100,000 people, placing the country in the list of the 20 most dangerous countries to drive.

This is an issue that needs to command more attention. A lot of the people who die on the road are young and productive and their loss devastates families and has a big effect on the economy.

The solutions to this crisis needs to go beyond the superficial efforts that have been tried for the last two decades.

In the short-term, enforcing the Michuki rules strictly and finding ways to beat graft among the traffic police through actual implementation of instant fines that are not so high that people seek to dodge them by paying bribes would help.

But there is a good reason why diplomats being posted in most of Africa are warned not to drive at night.

Most roads are not lit and above all, they are two-way motorways.

The ultimate long-term solution is to dual as many highways as possible. The Nairobi-Nakuru highway, for example, which has become such a death trap, is long overdue for dualing.

Other short-term measures need to be considered. When you drive by day at Salgaa, there is no apparent reason why so many accidents occur there.

But you soon realise why it’s a black-spot when you see a huge truck hurtling down towards you on “free gear” on the climbing lane. A lot of Kenyans either don’t respect or know anything about the climbing lane.

The solution is to put in rumble strips in the middle of the road so that vehicles going downhill cannot join the climbing lane exposing to danger those that are overtaking. That was done at the Nithi bridge area and there are far less fatalities now.

Either way, something needs to be done because the current situation is unsustainable.