Trump will have it easy for only two years

America's President-elect Donald Trump at Giant Center in Hershey, Pennsylvania on December 15, 2016. PHOTO | DON EMMERT | AFP

What you need to know:

  • Depending on how his presidency pans out, Mr Trump might not face any opponent in his party.

  • His best bet is to stick to his stated goals. But the pledges he made in 2016 will haunt him in the 2020 poll because the Democrats will employ them as a major weapon in their bid to regain the White House.

Donald Trump will have it easy as America's president for only two years because by the Christmas of 2018, the campaigns for the next election, set for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will have started in earnest as the Democrats prepare to pick the party’s flag bearer.

Depending on how his presidency pans out, Mr Trump might not face any opponent in his party. His best bet is to stick to his stated goals. But the pledges he made in 2016 will haunt him in the 2020 poll because the Democrats will employ them as a major weapon in their bid to regain the White House.

If he serves only one term, it will mean that the American citizens have totally rejected him. So, what can Mr Trump do to win that elusive second term? The answer is in his flagship goals such as building a wall on the Mexican border, expelling millions of illegal migrants, rolling back parts of the Obamacare scheme, cancelling international trade deals and the Iran nuclear pact, and making Nato countries pay for the defence of their nations.

In 2012, the election was decided for the incumbent president by the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, the man blamed for the September 11, 2001, attacks in New York and Washington DC that claimed more than 3,000 lives.

FEMALE CANDIDATE

In 2016, Osama was not an issue in the election. Perhaps it was the historic prospect of the first female candidate making it to the White House.

It was the first time that an agency of the US government was clearly out to influence the results of an election, as was seen in the actions of the FBI only days to the election. This could explain why Mrs Clinton walked away with more than two million votes above those of Mr Trump in the popular vote.

And, for the first time, Americans took to the streets to denounce the results of an election.

Perhaps those who are still smarting from Mr Trump’s win, as has been seen in efforts to stop him from ascending to the White House, including trying to lobby Electoral College electors to reject him, can take consolation in the possibility that had he lost, the violence that greeted the results would have been worse, given his rhetoric before the poll, casting aspersions on the integrity of the election.

Scenes of school children storming out of class to show their disgust at the election of Mr Trump showed that the wounds run deep and may take years to heal.

POLITICAL CLOUT

Mr Trump’s win compares to Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory against Jimmy Carter. But, Mr Reagan, a former actor and State governor, brought to the office more political clout and experience than Mr Trump. Known as the Gipper, Mr Reagan could make coherent speeches, unlike Mr Trump.

Mr Trump will have to carve out his own style, but he still has many questions to answer, the core one being whether he has paid his taxes.

Mainstream media houses such as the New York Times and the Washington Post may have opposed Mr Trump’s march to the Oval Office, but his victory may turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to the industry because after eight years of a man who did not generate a single scandal, things are just about to change — for the better for the media.

Mr Obama enjoys high approval rates as he prepares for his January 20 departure. The question of how long it will take for a woman to become commander-in-chief in the US, which had for long been touted as the leader of the free world, will depend on how that candidate picks the right time to launch her bid. Clearly for Mrs Clinton, it was the wrong time, and perhaps the wrong slogan as her “Stronger Together” seems to have been no match Mr Trump’s “Make America Great Again”.

 

Henry Owuor is foreign and diplomatic editor, ‘Daily Nation’.