Thwarting voters’ aspirations could prove fatal to any party

After keeping thousands of Kenyans on tenterhooks for months, the opposition National Super Alliance’s unveiling of their flag-bearer on Thursday came as an anti-climax of sorts.

To start with, it was always expected that the doyen of opposition politics, Mr Raila Odinga, would emerge tops, so there was no real surprise in this.

Secondly, the timing was wrong. What would have been a major, spectacular event was somewhat diluted by the rumblings that followed botched nominations in many of its strongholds.

KENYA'S DESTINY
Some pundits have averred that this timing was a tactical move, but if this was the case, then it was not very well thought-out considering that nominations in ODM, which Mr Odinga heads, were replete with perfidy.

This is not to say that Jubilee Party did not have its own share of cantankerous individuals stealing the vote in broad daylight and committing all kinds of electoral hanky panky. But Jubilee was not revealing its line-up; Nasa was.

However, Thursday’s event cannot be dismissed off-hand for it has a bearing on the events that will shape Kenya’s destiny.

For whatever it is worth, many people, especially those who inhabit the blogosphere as well as pundits in the print and broadcast media will have a field day making all kinds of predictions.

THREE-TIME FAILURE

Those aligned to Nasa will say it was the best thing that ever happened to this country, especially because the predictions of a fall-out due to dissatisfaction with the outcome of prolonged line-up negotiations did not materialise.

But those aligned to Jubilee have already started crowing that the choice of Mr Odinga as the Nasa honcho spells doom for the opposition, simply because he has already tried thrice for the prize and failed.

All they can see is a repeat of the 2013 presidential race, and won’t admit that the circumstances are quite different.

Such predictions may turn out to be wishful thinking when the reality unfolds before the elections.

VOICE OF THE PEOPLE
In the end, it is the voters who will decide who, between Nasa and Jubilee, will take charge of the country.

The voter’s will is supreme, and where it is thwarted, then all the carefully laid-out plans will in the end unravel.

That is why what happened in the primaries may determine what happens on August 8.

And if the primaries were a shambles, one of two things could happen; the electorate could vote with their feet and march to the “enemy” camp, or they could just sit at home and deny everybody their vote. Either outcome is highly unwelcome.

FINAL SAY
As if to prove the voters have the final say, they have already sent at least seven governors packing.

Considering that a good number of those governors have been behaving like sovereign rulers of their counties, untouchable and unaccountable, this is quite a feat.

And we are not even talking of the hundreds of MPs and MCAs who have been gorging on taxpayers’ money as if there was no tomorrow.

Is there a positive side to this issue of primaries? It depends.

There are people in Jubilee whose nomination will benefit the party greatly.

For instance, that of Senator Mike Sonko as Nairobi governor may have been unthinkable just a few months ago, but perhaps nobody else could bring out the vote the way he might.

DIRECT TICKETS

Another unlikely candidate, who is basking in the warmth of Kiambu County governor-elect, is Ferdinand Waititu Baba Yao.

Forget about his antics of yore; by flooring Mr William Kabogo, he took to Jubilee a huge number of voters who may have stayed home.

The same logic is, perhaps, what informed the ODM leadership’s decision to give direct tickets to a huge number of sitting governors, senators, MPs and MCAs.

Their value to Nasa may prove to be incalculable, but perhaps, in retrospect, ODM should have allowed a measure of opposition in its strongholds, if only for the sake of appearance.

PARTY DEMOCRACY
At the very least, primaries are a useful measure of a party’s fortunes during the elections proper.

When you have two candidates being presented with nomination certificates in one day, then you have a major problem.

Perhaps party leaders should learn from the past.

Only internal party democracy can assure voters that their voice actually matters.

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