‘Locked-in’ voters offer politicians cover to loot and lob tear gas at pupils

So the other day I walked into one of those establishments where Nairobian middle class types while away their lunch time and, nosy journalist that I am, couldn’t help overhearing the conversation at the next table. 

There were around 15 people, most of them male, enjoying a meal of dry fried goat. The hot topic was, of course, the Langata Road Primary School incident the previous day. 

And the guys, who were clearly Jubilee supporters, were surprisingly unanimous about where the blame for the situation where police lobbed tear gas at children lay: 

“Those activists are merciless. How can they send children into harm’s way? In fact the head-teacher should be arrested at once,” said one.
“Aaagh, me if I had spotted my child at that demonstration some bottoms would have been pinched that evening.” 

“Kwanza the police should really be commended for what they did. Kwani si even in South Sudan you have child soldiers? Are they spared the bullet because they are children?” 

You would imagine that if ever there was a matter that would unite Kenyans, it would be the blatant grabbing of a playground and the use of the police to protect the grabbers.

This is a story about graft and greed. Transparency International’s definition of corruption, after all, is simply “the abuse of entrusted power for private gain”, in this case allocating a public school playground to a “private developer”. 

Yet, despite everything, you will find that a lot of Jubilee supporters analyse the situation one way (blaming the activists who protested) and the primary voices raised against the grabbing are from Cord voters. 

Political scientists have a phrase for this phenomenon where people offer support to politicians no matter the circumstances: locked-in voters. 

Often, they are “locked-in” because of their need for access to resources which those politicians control, but in the case of Kenya, people are just locked-in by their ethnic identity.

That means it does not matter what the government does. Their supporters will vote for them in tyrannical numbers anyway. 

That explains the crisis of governance in the country because politicians don’t feel the pressure to perform well because they understand that the election will simply be an exercise in mobilising ethnic blocs. 

By offering blind support, voters are effectively the weakest link in the system.

2010 REFERENDUM

I have shared these numbers before, from the referendum on the proposed constitution in 2010 when people in different regions didn’t have grounds to differ starkly along ethnic lines but still voted to the last man with their ethnic kingpins. 

So William Ruto’s people voted strongly against the draft constitution. In Mosop, 95 per cent picked No and 5 per cent chose Yes. In Belgut, the numbers were (93 per cent No – 7 per cent Yes) while in Konoin the result was (94 per cent to 6 per cent).

Prime Minister Raila Odinga declared that he favoured the draft and Luo voters shared his enthusiasm. The results were 99 per cent Yes in Rangwe, 1 per cent No, Ugenya (99 per cent – 1 per cent), Uriri (99 per cent – 1 per cent) and so it went on.

The story was repeated in President Kibaki’s backyard where the final score among the Agikuyu was 93 per cent Yes in Mathioya, 7 per cent No, Othaya (92 per cent – 8 per cent) and Tetu (93 per cent – 7 per cent).

Kenya and America are completely different countries but just for illustrative purposes, consider Barack Obama’s poll numbers over the last year.

His popularity collapsed after a botched roll-out of a government-run healthcare website, a situation made worse with the rise of Isis and hysteria about the possibility of Ebola sweeping through America. But now he has rebounded handsomely in the polls thanks to an improving economy.

In such a situation, politicians know they must raise their game to stay in the good books of voters. In Kenya, it is more than enough to hail from one of the five big ethnic groups and to have a silver tongue with which to acquire the position of ethnic kingpin.

Small details like grabbing land and lobbing choking tear gas at little children may excite the media, but you will sleep soundly at night because you know your voters are safely locked-in.

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