When Kismayu falls, Somalia will still be a minefield for our soldiers

What you need to know:

  • Somalia is the basic source of the terrorism that has killed our people and scarred our country

By the time you read this, our troops will most probably have entered Kismayu, the beautiful but unfriendly nest of Al-Shabaab vipers.

Kismayu is basically what this war has been about. It is the mother’s milk of the regional terrorists, their source of strength and sustenance. And it has been a danger to our economy, pumping smuggled goods into the region.

Somalia, in general, is a painful boil on the backside of Kenya. It is the basic source of the terrorism that has killed our people and scarred our country.

It is also the source of unregistered migrants, possibly in their millions, who have brought with them religious militancy into our mosques and madrassas and through their unregulated investment, probably distorted our economy.

I am all for generosity, open arms to our neighbours and all that, but I do know in my heart that if it was Kenya in trouble and we had all crossed the border to seek refuge in Somalia, Mohamed Siad Barre would most probably have put us to the sword. We’ll help, but not with stars in our eyes.

Al-Shabaab cannot stand up to the KDF in combat, naturally. That’s why most of them disappeared to Gosha, Janale, Jilib, Jamame, and such other exotic places, most probably to melt into the local population there when they heard KDF was in the neighbourhood.

That is not to say that they haven’t left behind fanatics and booby-traps to attack AMISOM troops once they enter the city.

They most probably have and we can only hope our soldiers will be extra careful.

I have heard that “clan elders”, a nice Somali term for warlords, have been applying pressure on Al-Shabaab to lay down their weapons to avoid damage and bloodshed in Kismayu.

I hope they have been successful, because true victory is won without a shot being fired.

So, after Kismayu is taken, how will the peace look like? One would imagine, not pretty at all. My fear is that once their lair is taken, the fanatics of both Al-Shabaab and Al- Qaeda will melt into the general population and, following Saddam’s example in Iraq, wage an insurgency against AMISON and terrorism in the region.

If the Somali government were strong and trustworthy, then perhaps one would expect that it would do the needful and help hunt down the militants.

But it is too early to know who is what in the new administration and it will be many months, if not years, before the young government is able to take charge of the country.

On the other hand, KDF should possibly expect trouble from its fractious allies.

The reason why militias are fighting alongside AMISOM is in the hope of taking control of Kismayu once Al-Shabaab is evicted.

If KDF does not immediately occupy and secure the most sensitive installations – the port, the airport and critical state locations – its militia partners will quickly do so and will not give them up without a shooting fight.

One can see why soldiers would be fond of the militia and the warlords who lead them: they have fought the whole campaign alongside them, unlike the blasted weak and unreliable politicians who spend all their time bickering and stabbing backs.

But long-term political stability cannot be built by militia and warlords; a more progressive and moderate political class must emerge, and it is upon its shoulders that the future of Somalia, and to some extent the stability of the region, rests.

Finally, the behaviour of Somali politicians does not demonstrate gratitude for the sacrifices that Africa has made on behalf of their country.

That’s fine; ingratitude is everyone’s right. But the region must keep an eye on its own interests even as it offers Somalia help.

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The absence of logic in an argument can be as devastating as its presence: some fellows have been arguing that Defence minister Yusuf Haji is causing trouble in the Tana Delta because he owns land, schools and cows there.

Why would a rational human being start a war where his wealth is? Would it not make sense to start a war where you have no interests? And why hasn’t anyone pointed this out? (The minister denies owning property or having interests in the area.)

Tana River must be thoroughly investigated and the facts established. That might be a better solution than infantile propaganda.