Namwamba should reconsider his decision to go it alone

Budalang'i MP Ababu Namwamba addressing the media at his Busia home on July 17, 2016 where he denied he plans to join the Jubilee coalition. PHOTO | TO OTIENO | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Surprisingly, there seems to be a glimmer of hope on how Raila Odinga can make it out of his supreme ordeal in the script that is panning out.
  • Ford Kenya remained a Luhya party, and the rest, as you realise, was the loss of the opposition to Kanu in the 1997 general election.
  • Whereas the Chinese have two different language dialects - Cantonese and Mandarin – they have made a deliberate and concerted effort to identify as one linguistic and cultural community.

Trouble is brewing for Cord. It probably started in Ukambani during Senator Johnstone Muthama’s homecoming, when Wiper Chairman David Musila challenged Cord to unveil its flag-bearer in the next one month.

Granted, naming a flag-bearer early is good for purposes of strategic planning and campaign. But from where I sit, it appears that Wiper’s call has some undertones that would only heighten the narrative that Kalonzo Musyoka is not willing to play second fiddle to Raila Odinga.

If this were a screenplay I would call Mr Musila’s declaration an exciting moment, maybe a catalyst for further turning points beleaguering Raila Odinga who is apparently descending to his lowest ebb as an enigma in Kenyan politics.

Moves by ODM Secretary General Ababu Namwamba, the party Vice Chairman Paul Otuoma and Sirisia MP John Waluke have the colouration of a well-crafted plot, presenting Raila Odinga with major conflicts before the climax. Will he crumble?

Similar moves, or rather threats, have also been bandied around by Kisii Senator Chris Obure and Migori Senator Wilfred Machage, who have threatened to pull their respective communities from ODM.

The story of my Senator, Dr Machage, is long and complicated and we’ll save it for another day.

Surprisingly, there seems to be a glimmer of hope on how Raila Odinga can make it out of his supreme ordeal in the script that is panning out.

Granted, politics is all about perception. It would be pretentious to say that the Western "exodus" from ODM does not have serious implications on the stature of the party and the Cord coalition.

"THIRD FORCE" MOCKERY

However, situated broadly, whatever ‘third force’ movement that the "exodees" are talking about is just another journey to an elusive Luhya unity ethnic movement, because ours is an ethnocracy and the larger Luhya community has found it hard to rally behind one of their own to any good effect.

In 1992, for instance, Western was the only province that sprayed its votes almost equally to Matiba and Moi ,while giving a few MPs to Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s Ford Kenya.

The luminary Young Turks of the early 1990s probably learned the tidal demands of ethnocracy and retreated to their ethnic enclaves to remain relevant at the national level.

Kiraitu Murungi moved from Ford Kenya to DP, and Raila moved from Ford Kenya to NDP where he galvanised the Luo nation together.

Ford Kenya remained a Luhya party, and the rest, as you realise, was the loss of the opposition to Kanu in the 1997 general election.

From where I sit, President Moi did not win. Rather, ethnicity lost.

Moi’s competitors were all tribal kingpins with Kibaki leading his Mount Kenya nation and Raila the Luo nation, while Wamalwa Kijana and Charity Ngilu completed the cast of the then ethnic contest.

Therefore, to say that Ababu and his "exodees" will emerge as a third force is a mockery of our understanding of why it didn’t happen in 1997, when the non-ethnic conformists were swept aside.

A few luminaries like Anyang Nyong'o of SDP, Prof Ouma Muga of Ford Kenya and Joseph Kamotho of Kanu among others, who deliberately went against the ethnic tide, were indiscriminately swept aside for not being on the ethnic bandwagon.

The 1997 loss must have taught the opposition a lesson, as it became clear that ethnic political parties and winning elections were mutually exclusive.

DEFYING TRIBAL CHIEFS

With this understanding, Mwai Kibaki, Charity Ngilu and Kijana Wamalwa teamed up with disgruntled Kanu presidential hopefuls who had morphed into the Rainbow Alliance, formed the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) and trounced Uhuru Kenyatta’s Kanu.

The laudable win earned Kenyans the distinction of being the most optimistic citizens in the world at that point, and it is important to note that the opposition did not win. Kenyans won.

Interestingly, Musalia Mudavadi, James Orengo and a few others fell by the wayside, for defying the tribal chiefs who had submerged their presidential ambitions to rally their kinsmen behind Narc and President Mwai Kibaki.

Similar ethnic political moves were witnessed in the run-up to the 2007 general elections. William Ruto whipped his Kalenjin nation, Musalia Mudavadi struggled with his Luhya nation and Raila Odinga had his Luo nation, and maybe perceived support from the other "Pentagon" members.

Not to be left behind, Uhuru Kenyatta took Kanu and his support to the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, and the rest, as they say, was the resurgence of tribal politics.

It therefore appears that Mr Namwamba can only go as far using his ethnic base to leverage support, and that could go either way.

Going it alone is misplaced, for two reasons. First, it is not possible in the current ethnicised political dispensation.

The few people who have tried have going it alone ended up falling by the wayside or supporting the very people they thought they would rival. Examples abound, from Cyrus Jirongo in 2007 to Eugene Wamalwa, Charity Ngilu, Najib Balala and Omino Magara in 2013.

SEEMINGLY POWERFUL

Secondly, the Luhya have linguistic and cultural variety, like the Chinese do, for example. Yet unlike the Chinese, their approach to linguistic varieties and dialects within the language is different.

Whereas the Chinese have two different language dialects - Cantonese and Mandarin – they have made a deliberate and concerted effort to identify as one linguistic and cultural community.

On the other hand the 18 Luhya sub-tribes, though mutually intelligible, have linguistically and culturally dissociated, and to some extent, disengaged from the main tribe.

Therefore, it is difficult to see how Ababu Namwamba can kindle Luhya unity and create a force.

Seasoned politicians and yesteryear’s "Young Turks", who fought for the second liberation in Kenya, have remained relevant and seemingly powerful behind the scenes because they have accepted the fact that political survival calls for retreating to our ethnic enclaves.

To this end, while Raila seizes the tools to get him out of his supreme ordeal, Ababu Namwamba may want to get a few tips.

He can talk to Paul Muite, Gitobu Imanyara, Kiraitu Murungi, James Orengo, Prof Anyang Nyong'o, Dr Chris Bichage and Dr Mikhisa Kituyi before he talks of the third force.

Hesbon H. Owila is a lecturer in Communication at Daystar University.