With President Trump, Kenya may have to change its ways

“Mr President, Mr President!”

This is how American lovers and haters of incoming US President Donald Trump must call him from today, until either Congress or the people of America may decide to stop him from staying at his new residence on 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW, the White House.

The American press has exhausted many of us with their unending nagging about anything Mr Trump does or says, and Trump himself seems to enjoy it.

Whether we like it or not, today’s Washington ‘Trump-et blast’ will mark the end of an era, and the start of the unknown.

Trump’s election and installation has raised an extraordinary amount of interest, suspicion and uncertainty across the world. It was a radical move, a move to the unknown.

People would usually want anything but the incumbent leader, and in Kenya we all remember the chants of 'Moi must go' and Kibaki tosha.

Britain, Ghana, India, Venezuela, the Philippines, and now the US, have made radical moves to elect anti-establishment leaders and France could be next. These radical shifts sometimes work, but other times they do not.

Like it or not, Trump’s installation will make a huge, uncertain impact on Kenya. Trump is an extremely shrewd businessman. He is unconventional, arrogant, intelligent and extravagant in style.

But we do not yet know Trump the politician, the listener, the role model, the pacifier. Trump’s presidency is a Pandora’s box, full of surprises and foreseeable shocks.

Trump’s policies have the power to change our social landscape. His approach to cooperation could sink our health system and crisis into a deeper mess. This mess could bring sanity in the end, but at a painful cost.

If the new US president wishes, a significant chunk of Kenya’s donor-driven health budget could be wiped out. In the 2014-2015 financial year development partners funded 57 per cent of Kenya’s health budget, with the US being the single largest donor for the past 15 years.

In 2012/2013 alone, the US funded 64 per cent of Kenya's HIV treatment budget, which came to $511.9 million, around Sh44 billion by 2013 rates.

KENYATTA'S OXYGEN PLANT

What will Trump do? Will this aid evaporate? Machines, systems, technologies, training and drugs are bought with donor money. Doctors I have spoken to say a lot of donor money is syphoned into private pockets and does not reach its intended destination.  

This unwarranted strike, which has claimed too many lives, cries out to heaven. It is turning undertakers into successful, fashionable tycoons.

The chaos in Kenya's public health sector is not just a collective bargaining problem. It sprung from the total mess of unplanned devolution, misplaced priorities, lack of foresight and corruption. Infrastructure and systems were not ready for devolution.

Young doctors had not been paid a salary for six months. For them, the government’s threat of ‘no work no pay’ was a sad, laughing matter. Doctors and nurses are paid poorly and work in lousy circumstances.

Machines are in the wrong health centres, some have been stolen and others purposely damaged, so that the public would be redirected to health practitioners in private businesses.

Why is the MRI machine at Kenyatta National Hospital not working? Kenyatta Hospital also has an oxygen plant that has never functioned for more than two days in a row. The day it is fully repaired, a good number of corrupt officers who run their own oxygen businesses will go bankrupt.

A further collapse of the health system is unforgivable, a political time bomb. The death of dear ones has no race and no tribe.

THE THREE 'T' TEST

Kenya may have a few lessons to learn from this. The anti-establishment vote is usually emotional, radical and oftentimes irrational. Often the equation is simple; it does not matter who comes in for as long as we get rid of the current leader.

Real democracies sooner or later face the triple “T” test. This is the test of Time, Truth and Trust. The 'T' of time, for societies are worn out by long-staying leaders.

The dynamics of nowadays politics and economics demand constant change. Most countries have five-year presidential terms. In the millennial days, I predict this will be reduced to a maximum of three years.

Shamefully, Africa has the highest percentage of long-serving presidents. Teodoro Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea, José Eduardo dos Santos of Angola, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Paul Biya of Cameroon, and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda are all stale, with more than 30 years in power.

Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, Idriss Déby of Chad, and Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea were close behind with more than 25 years.

The last of the Mohicans, Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia, has until today, 3pm Nairobi time, to leave the country, before the UN-backed forces jump into action, although they are already stationed at the doors of Banjul. The Gambians have borne too much of this non-thinking caudillo.

The 'T' for truth, for citizens know the truth of what politicians may deny: who lies, who steals and how much. In this social media age, integrity and transparency are assessed in real time. The manipulation of truth multiplies conspiracy theories and breaks trust.`

Finally, the 'T' of trust. Our constitution was designed for trust. Devolution was designed to increase trust by bringing accountability to the peoples’ doorsteps, reducing the gap between the governor and the governed. This was essential to appraise our leaders based on their delivery and shame the underperforming ones.

Don Deya, CEO of the Pan African Lawyers Union, told me yesterday that the Africa that we end up with and bequeath to our children will be neither the Africa we wish we had nor the Africa that we eloquently criticised, but the Africa that we, in our lifetime, consciously built.

Dr Franceschi is the dean of Strathmore Law School. [email protected]; Twitter: @lgfranceschi