Irrespective of elections, Kenya needs political dialogue

Nasa leaders Kalonzo Musyoka (left) and Raila Odinga (centre) when they met opinion leaders from Kajiado County on October 10, 2017 where they also announced their withdrawal from the repeat poll. Irrespective of elections, Kenya needs political dialogue. PHOTO | DENNIS KAVISU | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • What should have been a contest between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Odinga will now not happen.

  • While it is unclear what the long-term effect of this situation will be, it suggests that the election on October 26 will not resolve the underlying crisis in the country’s political system.

  • It is to be hoped that the critical condition of the country will, at last, make dialogue possible.

A day after the dramatic announcement by Nasa candidate Raila Odinga and his deputy Kalonzo Musyoka that they had withdrawn from the fresh presidential election scheduled for October 26, a High Court judge issued a judgment compelling the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to include another opposition candidate, Ekuru Aukot, in the list of candidates for the election.

The IEBC has since pronounced itself on the confusion resulting from these latest developments, announcing that the election is still on course and that, in compliance with the order of the High Court, Aukot, the leader of the Thirdway Alliance, will now be allowed to participate in the election.

Although the High Court order was specific to Aukot, the IEBC has fortuitously extended to all the candidates who participated in the annulled presidential election on  August 8 the chance to take part in the fresh election.

Odinga and Musyoka announced that the withdrawal of their candidature was the result of the failure by the IEBC to meet the “irreducible minimums” demand that the Nasa coalition had made, as a pre-condition to their participation in the election.

STATEMENT

In their statement, the opposition candidates also expressed concern over the overall political context ahead of the election, including a view that the Jubilee leadership had embarked on a process of destroying the opposition by bribing its leadership to defect to the ruling party, as a means of changing the electoral context.

In the streets, Nasa has continued with a campaign of protests that are supposed to drive home its case for reforms at the IEBC and, having initially announced that an increase in the frequency of the protests from twice weekly to thrice, these will now be held daily from this week.

Official reaction to the protests, which are staged in Nairobi and Mombasa as well as several places in Nyanza, including Kisumu, has varied.

In some places on some days, the protests have been peaceful, while in others, police has put down the protests with brutal force.

PROTESTS

Two people died in Bondo last week, shot by police in the context of the protests. Police have shot a number of others in places like Kisumu and Nairobi.

Late last week, acting Interior Secretary Fred Matiang’i announced that demonstrators would henceforth be banned from accessing the central business areas in, among other places, Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu, during their demonstrations, an announcement that was greeted by reminders that the right to demonstrate is protected in the Constitution, and that it is inconsistent with this protection for people in authority to arbitrarily limit places for the exercise of this right.

By announcing that a fresh presidential election will proceed on October 26, the IEBC has now resolved the last set of major legal issues that were outstanding in relation to the fresh presidential election.

A significant section of the population, wearied by a long electioneering period, would welcome an end to elections and whatever imperfections the preparations might be suffering from, the IEBC announcement responds to a yearning that elections must come to an end and  people should be given back their lives.

IMPACT

There is also increased concern about the economic impact of the inherent uncertainty in the electioneering season, now made worse by the public order issues arising from the Nasa street protests around the country. 

Whatever happens on October 26, the likelihood that Odinga and Musyoka will now not be on the ballot remains a major issue.

What should have been a contest between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Odinga will now not happen.

While it is unclear what the long-term effect of this situation will be, it suggests that the election on October 26 will not resolve the underlying crisis in the country’s political system.

IMPORTANT PLACE

With possibilities at the ballot now closing out, and having suffered further losses in the legislature where Jubilee increased its control, the only option left for the opposition in the coming days is to take its case directly to the people.

In this regard, the street will remain an important place of agitation for the opposition, and the ongoing contest over what is allowed in terms of street protests is of great importance to the opposition.

In the post-election violence that followed the disputed results of the 2007 elections, out of the 1,133 people whose killing the Waki Commission confirmed and documented, 405 died from gunshot wounds.

The commission adjudged that these had been killed by the police who were, therefore, responsible for the deaths of at least 35 per cent of the people who died in the violence.

VIOLENCE

The purported ban on opposition street protests sets the stage for another round of police violence on citizens and, with an unresolved political crisis and the absence of opportunities for dialogue where the crisis can be discussed, the government will need to place increased reliance on force to maintain its way.

The emergence of the so-called Nairobi Business Community is a reminder that private militia, as a way of maintaining political control, remains an option that the government is willing to consider.

In addition, just as happened during the 2007 crisis and despite the reforms that have since followed, the police remain willing to act violently at the behest of the political side in power, effectively abandoning the high position as a neutral law-enforcement authority for all, and descending into the lowly place of a private militia on behalf of one political side.

However, the current impasse is ultimately not sustainable. Irrespective of the elections, the country needs political dialogue.

DIALOGUE

Calls for dialogue are not new and have remained a companion in times of crisis since the last elections in 2013.

It is to be hoped that the critical condition of the country will, at last, make dialogue possible.

On the way to such dialogue, there are still many questions to be addressed, including the effect that an election would have on the possibilities, content and timing of the dialogue.

This week will be important as many actors will seek to promote clarity on the framing of the options for the dialogue.

In turn, this will have practical implications for the elections scheduled the following week.