Uhuru and Raila should sit together, alone, and resolve to unite Kenya

There is no doubt that the August 2017 general election will be remembered as a major event that turned a different page on Kenya.

The fact that the Supreme Court annulled the election will always feature in future studies on Kenya.

But the August 2017 election will be remembered for something quiet different from the Supreme Court ruling.

The election will be remembered for the impact it has had on people and the governance institutions.

ELECTION DISCUSSION

More specifically, the August 2017 and attendant Supreme Court ruling, combined, appear to have an impact at the level of individuals as well as on institutions.

Ordinary citizens are discussing the elections. Elites are discussing the election.

Everyone appears to have taken the ‘election discussion’ as an occupation.

This is happening not because people want to discuss the election.

AFFECTING

It is happening because the August 2017 election  and the Supreme Court ruling is affecting people directly.

Some people now argue that the election has affected their business; they say there is nothing going on.

Any discussion with any taxi man and boda boda riders begins with how bad their business is.

But it is not the economy alone where these effects are felt. People’s social lives are similarly affected. 

MISTRUST

In urban areas, some people are fearful of their neighbours. Many are worried that how they related with neighbours is changing.

The division along Jubilee and Nasa line is breeding mistrust among even the ordinary citizens.

The middle class are worse off; they are more divided along these party – and ethnic lines – in perhaps unpredicted manner.

People are becoming suspicious of one another on account of ethnic identity.

All this suggests that we are slowly losing the country.

DIVISIONS

Leaders in both Jubilee and Nasa appear silent on these divisions. And when they are not silent, they are urging their base to stand against the opposing group.

All leaders, national and local, are pursuing this dangerous strategy of forgetting that there is a country to nurture and hold on to.

Simply put, the elections have left Kenyans more divided than they were in August.

And the process towards the fresh general election scheduled for October 26, 2017 is not any better.

WORRY

The contestations over the process itself, and the mobilisation of support that is taking place are sufficient to worry about.

The contestations over the electoral process itself is leading to questions about what type of an election we shall have, and whether there will be a good turn out.

In fact, one may say that yes there will be an election on October 26 but we do not know how the next day will look like.

Elections have also weakened important institutions

WEAKENED

These are issues of concern because the contestations over the procedure of conducing the elections have had a similarly negative effect on various institutions.

All institutions relevant to elections have come of the electoral process weaker than they were in August 2017.

A look at each of the relevant institutions is noteworthy. First are the political parties.

The party primaries conducted just before the August 8, general election wounded all the major parties in many ways.

SHAMBOLIC PRIMARIES

The shambolic manner in which some of the parties conducted the primaries reduced popular confidence in the parties and some of the leaders who allegedly won the primaries.

But Kenyans have forgotten the effects of the party primaries.

People have forgotten the shambolic party primaries, yet some of the leaders who bought their way so as to triumph in party primaries finally won the election especially if they were in the strongholds of the party.

These are not leaders to entrust with the will and aspirations of the people. They will betray the people because they bought their way to power.

IEBC WEAKENED

The betrayal will definitely happen before the next general election.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has come out of the elections weakened, politically, because of contestations on the process to conduct another election.

Before the August 8, 2017, public confidence in the IEBC was above 60% owing to institutional preparedness.

Indeed, the polling day reflected this preparedness. There were no disputes over delay in delivery of materials or challenges in logistics.

PETITIONS

The many petitions filed in the courts challenging election of leaders at different levels do not have the traditional complaints of delays in opening the polling stations or delivery of materials.

They lack the typical complaints of returning officers and polling officers messing up with ballots or helping in stuffing of ballots.

Many of the petitions are borrowing from the Supreme Court’s ruling and in particular the focus on the electoral process of transmitting the results; and the how the various forms were filled and transmitted.

Whether by-elections will be held on account of these is a matter of wait and see; we have to wait and see whether the quality of filling the forms at this level is different from that of the presidential election.

IEBC DIVIDED

All the same, the contestations over the process of holding another election have certainly left the IEBC divided along several lines.

The Jubilee and Nasa conflict has also spilled over to the IEBC and is affecting how people perceive the IEBC and its ability conduct a fresh election.

Those supporting Nasa believe the IEBC cannot while those supporting Jubilee believe the IEBC can effectively conduct another election.

And since these divisions are ethnic in character, there is a tendency then to judge the IEBC using these ethnic colours.

NEW PERCEPTION

The divisions are also evident in how people are judging the Judiciary and the Supreme Court in particular.

The annulment of the Presidential election has certainly evolved a new perception of the Judiciary particularly because Nasa and Jubilee pronounced their views on the Supreme Court and its leadership.

Simply put, if Jubilee does not like the courts, Nasa will definitely like the courts.

Whatever Nasa doesn’t like, Jubilee will hold it in admiration; and whatever Jubilee does not like, Nasa will hold it in love. This is the truism.

INSTITUTIONS

No matter where you look, elections have divided key institutions in an unprecedented manner.

Religious institutions may not appear in public as divided but one can read the Nasa-Jubilee divide  in some of the commentaries and pleadings made in public.

Among the religious groups, there are those in support of the Supreme court ruling and those opposed to the ruling.

There are those in support of a reformed IEBC and those opposed to reconstitution of the IEBC.

MEDIATION

In other words, they have similarly taken sides with the political blocs that characterise the political space today

Who will mediate?

The divisions are continuing to deepen but there is no institution with the credibility to mediate the crisis.

The religious leaders will soon be treated with suspicion by either of the sides.

NO ONE

The business community will also be mistrusted because its leadership is seen regime friendly.

Internally we seem to have no one to call both sides to order.

There appears to be no man or woman credible enough and trusted enough by both parties to mediate.

But our problems are also too big for Africa and the world itself. In fact, globally, Kenya politics tend to tire everyone quite fast.

INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS

International election observers know this better.

The Former South African President, Tambo Mbeki, who a somehow good mediator African based conflicts, will not be trusted by some because he was part of the election observers.

Some will not trust the former US Secretary of State, John Kerry, because he was here leading the Carter Centre election observation mission.

Some will not trust Kofi Annan because he has been here before.

NO LEADER

It appears there is no single global leader whom the two parties can simultaneously trust to intervene.

Our problems are too complex to be entrusted with anyone else other than Kenyans themselves.

But there is a no Kenyan with convening power to bring these players on the table. 

Kenyans also do not trust themselves.

The solution cannot be found anywhere else.

SHIFT FOCUS

Both the Nasa and Jubilee leadership will have to shift focus away from their competition and begin to focus their eyes on Kenya.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga should prepare to shift their attention away from competition and contestation to Kenya.

If both believe in Kenya, we should see them sit, alone, and talk Kenya.

This act on its own will calm their political bases and prepare the base for a proper election.

They need to shift their mind to Kenya. But can this happen? Your guess is not as good as mine!

Prof Kanyinga is based at the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi; [email protected]