Raila has no escape from imminent defeat at the ballot

All escape routes are sealed and there is no exit from the imminent defeat awaiting Mr Raila Odinga at the forthcoming October 26, 2017 presidential election.

By the time Mr Odinga announced his withdrawal from the fresh contest ordered by the Supreme Court after the nullification of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election as president, his lawyers were leaning on the idle observations of judges in 2013.

The Supreme Court’s idle observations, known in legal parlance as obiter dicta, suggested that Mr Odinga could abandon a presidential race any time he chose.

They failed to appreciate that this was a private joke among judges whose dead giveaway lay in quoting a non-existent Article 138 (1) b. Even though a correction was subsequently issued naming the provision as 138 (8) b, it was still a good legal joke.

A candidate who has been nominated may withdraw his or her candidature by delivering to the respective returning officer a notice in Form 24A not later than three days after the nomination.

NOMINATION CERTIFICATE

The last time Mr Odinga received a nomination certificate from the chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission was on May 28, 2017 stating that he would contest the August 8, 2017 election. If another Form 20 was issued for the October 26, 2017, it was likely lost in the mail and with it any chances of his withdrawing from the race within the time prescribed by law.

Even though Mr Odinga has established a reputation as a prolific letter writer at the IEBC, the law does not contemplate people resigning from presidential races through press conferences or epistles.

Since September 1, 2017 nullification of the presidential election, Mr Odinga has tortured the country with demands for expandable maximum reforms to the election system couched as irreducible minimums. He has refused to campaign even as he haemorrhages support, with his closest allies defecting and declaring support for his opponent.

PRESIDENTIAL RUN

Already, Kenya has burnt Sh50 billion on elections and is counting another Sh12 billion for the fresh presidential run. Mr Odinga has compounded the country’s pain by single-handedly crashing the Nairobi Stock Exchange through his petition to the Supreme Court. He has threatened businesses with work disruption, boycott of goods and services, and worse.

Still, the National Super Alliance, which nominated Mr Odinga to run for president on August 8, 2017, is clutching at the legal straw that allows a political party to nominate its candidates for an election at least 90 days before a General Election. Well, there is no General Election until August 9, 2022.

Kenyans will not accept an extended period of electoral uncertainty. Even Mr Odinga’s ardent supporters, who have been protesting in the streets thrice a week, need to go back to their unemployment and habitual idleness.

Government, being a step ahead of Mr Odinga all the time, has withdrawn the police security assigned to him and his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka to prevent the pair from aggravating the armed officers into shooting them.

DEFEAT

Mr Odinga can lose his mind from all the stress being piled on him, pledge allegiance to Federal Republic of Germany and declare bankruptcy, but none of these actions will save him from his fate at the hands of the Kenyan voter on October 26, 2017.

Mr Odinga must face his defeat like a man. At 72, he has refused to accept that he is the doyen of opposition politics, just like his father, and that he will never be President. He must now be forced through the ballot to take his retirement at Opoda Farm in Bondo, Siaya County to daily don a pair of shorts, grey vest, black wellingtons and a peasant’s cap.

The writer is a Programme Advisor, Journalists for Justice. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect those of JFJ. [email protected]