Githu’s warning suggests that nuclear option of arresting Raila is on the cards

National Super Alliance (Nasa) kingpin Raila Odinga appeared last week to have embraced the school of thought which says that power is taken and not given in a straightforward challenge to President Kenyatta’s authority.

He told Washington especially to let Kenyans sort out their internal issues themselves and ruled out seat sharing talks with the President.

Confidence or bravado, that suggested Mr Odinga had an ace up his sleeve should the current impasse escalate to a dogfight with the government.

Mr Odinga had on November 28 publicly obliged his supporters by picking Jamhuri (Independence) Day December 12 for his oath-taking date as president at a Nasa-convened People’s Assembly.

That reversed an earlier boardroom decision as he now staked a claim to the presidency, to forming a government and to sharing in the glory of a historic day.

Expectedly, the partisan support that greeted his notification was long and loud, wide and wild.

ARREST

When the gauntlet hit government’s doorstep, it triggered the arrest last week of Nasa’s well-regarded economics tsar, star columnist and public intellectual, Dr David Ndii. That was the government’s shot across the bow of Nasa’s ship of civil resistance.

A bold exponent of secessionist debate, Dr Ndii had just been named to a Nasa think-tank on strategy and Mr Odinga’s investiture.

The investiture grates with government and its apparatchiks are clear why.

One, the law points out who qualifies to be sworn in as president. The person will have been declared president-elect following a poll he/she will have been declared winner of by the commission tasked to run elections. The law tasks organising and presiding the swearing-in ceremony to the Assumption of the Office of President Committee, names the two oaths to be taken, and tasks their administration to the Chief Registrar in the presence of the Chief Justice.

OATH

It commands the committee to publish in the Kenya Gazette the date on which the swearing-in shall take place, which day shall be a public holiday. It states which day it will be following either the commission’s declaration of winner or a court’s verdict on the same.

Two, the danger of the investiture is writ large. Mr Kenyatta transitioned from President-elect to President on November 28 and is serving his second and final five-year term. The investiture would create a rival presidency complete with a shadow parliament called people’s assembly.

A rival presidency and parliament suggest a competing government. It is why the investiture has been declared illegal by Attorney-General Prof Githu Muigai on behalf of the legally-sanctioned holders of power. And therein lies the conundrum confronting Kenyans.

Mr Kenyatta leads a government; Mr Odinga leads a protest. Mr Kenyatta leads a country; Mr Odinga recognises the country but not government. The law recognises Mr Kenyatta as Kenya’s elected President; Nasa styles Mr Odinga as the people’s president and Mr Kenyatta’s equal.

CEREMONY

Three, how then, would Mr Odinga’s investiture proceed? 

He said it would be unlike Uganda’s Kizza Besigye’s, but like Zimbabwe’s Emmerson Mnangagwa’s. Dr Besigye’s 2016 event was hurried, hushed and hidden. Last month, Mr Mnangagwa enjoyed an elaborate show of celebration before approving Zimbabweans.

Mr Odinga’s promise rules out a Besigye-style event. He blew his trumpet of bravery to embolden supporters to throng the ceremony. But that the Presidency is occupied rules out a Mnangagwa-style carnival. That makes for a clash between Kenya Police and Nasa faithful.

Kenya Police carry live bullets, shoot and kill and bludgeon to pulp. Nasa youths have grown ever more battle-hardened and bold as cops have unleashed excessive force on them. Lives, livelihoods and property could be lost on Tuesday.

NASA

Four, the investiture may invite the arrest of Nasa chiefs and faithful and escalate and prolong the election-induced uncertainty and turmoil.

Mr Odinga could have stopped this by switching to one of the many legal options of skinning the cat of computer-made poll atrocity at his disposal.

True, supporters demanded a swearing-in and he obliged them. But a mark of leadership is to change plans midstream and sway supporters aboard even if they don’t agree with them. It would not be cowardice if Mr Odinga shelved this event; he would be keeping his powder dry.

Such a step back appeared unlikely. But Prof Muigai’s warning that investiture was treasonous and therefore punishable by death was meant to jolt Nasa into self-restraint and reflection. It suggests the nuclear option of arresting Mr Odinga is either on the table or on the cards.

 Opanga is a commentator with a bias for politics [email protected]