Humiliating setback as Nasa forced to call off swearing-in

The National Super Alliance had promised ‘No Retreat, No Surrender’ on their resolve to swear-in Mr Raila Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka as President and Deputy President, respectively. It was with a whimper that the controversial ceremony was abandoned.

No clear reasons were given, but the retreat followed increasing pressure from Western countries, and a local stakeholders’ forum comprising largely churches and the big business lobby.

The main fear expressed was that any ceremony purporting to administer the oath of office in direct challenge to President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto would end up in violence, and also set the stage for continuing conflict and instability.

There was also the Njonjoesque warning from Attorney-General Githu Muigai that any illegal swearing-in would attract charges of treason, which on conviction would amount to a mandatory death sentence for Mr Odinga, Mr Musyoka and all others complicit.

UNITED

It was also apparent that Nasa was not very united. A good number in the coalition were afraid that the move was needlessly provocative, and served no cause other than to stoke Mr Odinga’s ego, especially as it was only of symbolic value and conferred not the slightest bit of power and authority.  It also appeared that the opposition movement had not done enough to put logistics in place, mostly because the organising committee was forced to work in great secrecy to keep away from the prying eyes of security intelligence operatives shadowing their every move.

An unstated factor that could have been key to the climb-down was Mr Musyoka’s continued absence in Germany by the bedside of his seriously ill wife, who is undergoing treatment for cancer. The timing on that score was particularly awkward.

BRAVE FACE

Although the Nasa leaders—Mr Odinga of ODM, Mr Moses Wetang’ula of Ford-Kenya, Mr Musalia Mudavadi of Amani National Congress, and Prof Kivutha Kibwana, who represented Mr Musyoka of Wiper Party—put on a brave face, they were aware that the decision to cancel the big event amounted to a humiliating capitulation.

If social media chatter is anything to go by, Mr Odinga’s ardent supporters who are mainstays of the Nasa offshoots, the National Resistance Movement and the #Resist campaign, were devastated by the sudden retreat.

Some of legendary opposition supremo’s most vociferous followers started loudly questioning whether he was growing old and tired, and perhaps whether it was time to hand over the baton to a younger and more energetic revolutionary.

By contrast, the Jubilee social media warriors already primed for battle were ecstatic.

Cancellation of the event confirmed their orchestrated narrative that Mr Odinga is a has-been and could not stomach a head-on confrontation.

SURRENDER

For them, it was abject surrender that confirmed President Kenyatta’s final triumph over his old adversary, and a turning point in collapse of the Nasa post-election rebellion that now frees the Jubilee administration to get on with the business of governing.

Of course, it might not be as simple as that. Unless there are serious steps towards dialogue and resolution of still outstanding issues, Nasa will regroup and come back aggressively.

It has to placate millions of angry and disappointed supporters will care little about diplomacy and Mr Odinga’s international standing if they decide to go for broke.

Mr Odinga also is not one to back down when presented with a fight. The threat of treason charges would be right up his alley, especially in a situation where the Attorney-General has absolutely no mandate to charge anyone or to direct the Inspector-General Police and the Director of Public Prosecutions in their duties.

TREASON

Unlike former Attorney-General Charles Njonjo, who in the mid 1970s, infamously warned that it was treason to discuss President Jomo Kenyatta’s succession, Mr Muigai in this day and age does not have the dictatorial powers to similarly protect Kenyatta II. 

If Nasa is to rebound, however, it must demonstrate more focus, resolve and unity of purpose.

One of its biggest problems is that it seems unsure what it really wants to achieve, a repeat election within six months, or long-term legal and structural reform.

It also has to make a more compelling case for the rejection of the repeat presidential election results that were upheld by the Supreme Court.

 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @MachariaGaitho